The recent strikes by Israel on Iranian nuclear sites have sent ripples of concern across the globe, particularly for India, which maintains delicate diplomatic and economic ties with both nations. The escalating tensions present a complex challenge for Indian foreign policy, requiring a carefully calibrated response to protect its strategic interests.
India has officially responded with "deep concern" following the reports of attacks on nuclear sites, emphasizing the need for both sides to avoid escalatory steps. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has urged the utilization of existing channels for dialogue and diplomacy to de-escalate the situation and resolve underlying issues. Furthermore, Indian embassies in Tehran and Tel Aviv have issued advisories for Indian citizens, urging them to exercise caution and stay informed about local security measures.
India's stake in the region is significant. It maintains close and friendly relations with both Israel and Iran. India has strategic partnerships with both Israel and Iran. India is one of the largest purchasers of Israeli arms, and Israel has been a reliable supplier of sophisticated military technology. Simultaneously, India has a long-standing relationship with Iran, which includes energy cooperation, connectivity projects like the Chabahar Port, and cultural exchanges.
A spiraling conflict between Israel and Iran could significantly hurt India's strategic interests and its economy. Instability in the region could substantially impact inflation and the balance of payments for India. The disruption of oil supplies is a major concern, as India relies heavily on imports to meet its energy demands. Any surge in oil prices would have a cascading effect on the Indian economy, affecting various sectors and potentially leading to inflationary pressures.
Moreover, a wider conflict could endanger the large Indian diaspora in the Gulf region. There are approximately nine million Indians living in GCC countries, who could be adversely affected if the conflict escalates. Besides, there are approximately 25,000 Indian citizens in Israel, including students, and around 10,000 Indian nationals in Iran, including traders and other professionals. The safety and security of these citizens are of paramount concern for the Indian government.
Given the circumstances, India's approach is likely to be multi-pronged. It will likely involve active diplomatic engagement with both Israel and Iran, urging restraint and a return to negotiations. India may also leverage its relationships with other key players in the region and beyond, such as the United States, Russia, and Arab countries, to promote de-escalation and dialogue.
India's long-term strategic interests require a stable and peaceful West Asia. While condemning violence and calling for restraint, India must also proactively work towards creating an environment conducive to dialogue and peaceful resolution of disputes. The current crisis underscores the complexities and challenges of Indian foreign policy in a rapidly changing world, requiring deft diplomacy and a commitment to peace and stability.
