The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by India, following a terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir, has sparked a significant crisis in Pakistan, particularly impacting its agricultural sector and raising concerns about potential long-term water security. The 1960 treaty, brokered by the World Bank, had been a cornerstone of water sharing between the two nations for over six decades, surviving multiple conflicts and periods of intense political tension. However, the recent decision by India to suspend the treaty and regulate water flow has triggered a cascade of adverse effects downstream in Pakistan.

One of the most immediate and visible impacts is the reduction in water flow to Pakistan's Sindh and Punjab provinces. Recent reports from the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) indicate a substantial decrease in water released from the Indus River system. Sindh province experienced a nearly 17% drop in water supply compared to the previous year, while Punjab saw a smaller but still significant reduction. This decline in water availability coincides with the crucial Kharif sowing season, threatening the cultivation of essential monsoonal crops. Farmers are already facing difficulties, and with the monsoon season still weeks away, the situation is expected to worsen, potentially leading to widespread agricultural losses and economic hardship.

Beyond the immediate agricultural concerns, the suspension of the IWT also has broader implications for Pakistan's water management and disaster preparedness. A key component of the treaty was the routine sharing of data on water levels, river flows, and dam operations. With India halting this information exchange, Pakistan is now less equipped to forecast floods and droughts, plan irrigation effectively, generate hydropower, and manage drinking water supplies. This lack of real-time data increases the risk of being caught off guard by sudden increases in water levels, potentially leading to devastating floods.

India's decision to suspend the treaty stems from national security concerns and allegations of Pakistan's support for cross-border terrorism. Following the terror attack, the Indian government asserted that "blood and water cannot flow together," signaling a shift towards a more assertive stance on water management. While the treaty granted Pakistan control over the waters of the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) and India control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej), India has begun projects to divert excess water from the western rivers for use within its own territories.

This move has faced strong opposition from Pakistan, which views it as a violation of the treaty and a threat to its water resources. However, India maintains that it is acting within its rights under the treaty to utilize the water for limited irrigation and unlimited non-consumptive uses like power generation. India is also constructing canals to divert water to states like Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab, aiming to improve water availability in these regions.

The long-term consequences of the IWT suspension remain uncertain. While some experts believe that a complete cutoff of water to Pakistan is unlikely due to India's limited storage capacity, even small disruptions in water flow can have significant impacts on Pakistan's agricultural system. The erosion of trust and transparency between the two countries is a major concern, as it could lead to further escalations and undermine regional stability.

The situation highlights the increasing vulnerability of the region to climate change, which is already putting strain on water resources. With Himalayan glaciers melting at an accelerated rate, the long-term water security of both India and Pakistan is at risk. The Indus Waters Treaty, drafted before the advent of modern climate science, does not adequately address these challenges. The current crisis underscores the need for both countries to find a way to resume dialogue and address the evolving water security challenges in a cooperative and sustainable manner, while also considering the impacts of climate change on the Indus basin.