Bitcoin's price has been consolidating between $102,000 and $112,000 since May, but a key volume metric suggests a significant breakout could be on the horizon. According to market analyst Cas Abbé, Bitcoin's on-balance volume (OBV) is trending upward, signaling hidden accumulation and growing buying pressure. This divergence between price and OBV suggests that Bitcoin could reach the $130,000–$135,000 range by the third quarter of 2025.

The OBV indicator is a technical analysis tool that uses volume flow to predict price changes. It operates on the principle that volume precedes price. By adding volume on days when the price closes higher and subtracting it on down days, the OBV aims to show whether buyers or sellers are in control of the market. A rising OBV, as is currently the case with Bitcoin, indicates that buying volume is outpacing selling volume, suggesting strong underlying demand.

A similar OBV divergence occurred between March and April 2025, when Bitcoin was trading sideways between $76,000 and $84,000 while the OBV formed higher lows. This divergence was followed by a 57% Bitcoin price rally, demonstrating the potential impact of OBV signals.

Another factor contributing to the bullish outlook is the potential breakout of a bull flag pattern. A bull flag is a technical chart pattern that indicates a continuation of an uptrend. If Bitcoin breaks out of this pattern, it could provide further momentum for a move towards the $130,000–$135,000 target.

Beyond technical analysis, broader market trends also support a positive outlook for Bitcoin. The increasing institutional adoption of Bitcoin, driven by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, has introduced a steady stream of capital into the market. Furthermore, favorable macroeconomic conditions, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, could further boost investor confidence and encourage risk-taking in assets like Bitcoin.

However, it's important to remember that the cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile and unpredictable. Predictions are not guarantees, and various factors could prevent Bitcoin from reaching the projected price range. These include regulatory changes, macroeconomic uncertainty, and shifts in market sentiment.

Despite these risks, the current combination of technical indicators, market trends, and growing adoption suggests that Bitcoin could be poised for a significant price increase in the coming months. Whether it reaches the $130,000–$135,000 target remains to be seen, but the signals are strong.