The results of recent by-elections across several states have painted a diverse picture of the current political landscape, with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Trinamool Congress (TMC), and Congress all securing victories. These bypolls, held on June 19, 2025, across five Assembly seats in Gujarat, Punjab, West Bengal, and Kerala, have triggered significant discussions and analyses regarding the shifting dynamics of Indian politics.
AAP emerged as a notable gainer, retaining two crucial seats in Gujarat and Punjab. In Gujarat's Visavadar, Gopal Italia, former state president of AAP, secured a win against BJP's Kirit Patel by a margin of over 17,000 votes. This victory is particularly significant for AAP as Visavadar was previously a BJP stronghold before shifting to AAP in 2022. In Punjab, Sanjeev Arora of AAP won the Ludhiana West Assembly seat, defeating Congress' Bharat Bhushan Ashu by a margin of 10,637 votes. Both seats were previously held by AAP, underscoring the party's continued influence in these regions. AAP National Convener Arvind Kejriwal has hailed these wins as a sign that people are fed up with BJP and have rejected Congress, looking to AAP for an alternative. He also noted the increased margin of victory compared to the last election, indicating growing satisfaction with the AAP government in Punjab.
The BJP managed to retain its stronghold in Kadi, Gujarat, where Rajendra Chavda won by a significant margin of 39,452 votes against Congress' Ramesh Chavda. This seat, reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates, has been a BJP bastion since 2017, and this victory reinforces the party's continued dominance in the area. The by-election was necessitated by the death of BJP MLA Karsan Solanki, and the party has successfully maintained its grip on the constituency.
In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) continued its winning streak by securing the Kaliganj Assembly seat. Alifa Ahmed of TMC won by a landslide margin of 50,049 votes over her nearest rival, Ashish Ghosh of the BJP. The bypoll was held following the death of TMC leader Nasiruddin Ahmed. TMC leader Derek O'Brien highlighted that the party has won all 11 bypolls held in West Bengal since 2024, showcasing the party's strong hold in the state.
The Congress party secured a significant victory in Kerala's Nilambur, where Aryadan Shoukath of the United Democratic Front (UDF) defeated CPI(M)'s M Swaraj by a margin of 11,077 votes. This win is particularly important for Congress as it wrests the seat from the ruling LDF, providing a morale boost ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections. The seat fell vacant after the resignation of LDF-backed independent MLA PV Anvar.
These by-election results reflect a complex interplay of regional and national factors. The AAP's success in retaining seats in Gujarat and Punjab underscores its growing influence and appeal as an alternative to the traditional BJP-Congress dynamic. The BJP's continued dominance in Kadi highlights its strong base in certain regions. TMC's unbroken streak in West Bengal reinforces its firm grip on the state's political landscape. Congress' win in Kerala marks a crucial victory against the ruling LDF, potentially setting the stage for a more competitive environment in the upcoming Assembly elections. Overall, the bypoll outcomes indicate a dynamic and evolving political scenario in India, with each party strategizing and adapting to the changing preferences and priorities of the electorate.
