India's ambition to transform into a developed nation by 2047, the centenary of its independence, has sparked considerable debate and analysis among economists. While some experts believe this goal is attainable, others suggest India might realistically achieve upper-middle-income status within the next two decades.
Economist Martin Wolf, in a recent interview, stated that India becoming a developed country by 2047 is "plausible" if the economy maintains a 6% growth rate. He added that an 8% growth rate would make the climb "easier and more certain". However, Wolf also pointed out that even with a 6% growth rate, India would likely be an upper-middle-income country, a significantly larger and more sophisticated economy than it is today, and potentially the third-largest globally. He notes that whether or not that makes India a 'developed' nation is a matter of definition.
Several reports echo the need for sustained and accelerated economic growth. A World Bank report suggests India needs to grow at an average of 7.8% over the next 22 years to reach high-income status by 2047. Similarly, the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP) estimates that an annual growth rate of 7.3% is necessary to achieve developed nation status by the same year. These growth rates are significantly higher than the 6.3% average India has experienced between 2000 and 2024.
Achieving these ambitious growth targets requires comprehensive reforms and strategic policy interventions. The World Bank emphasizes four critical areas: faster and inclusive growth across states, increased total investment from 33.5% of GDP to 40% by 2035, increased overall labor force participation from 56.4% to over 65%, and accelerated overall productivity growth.
PwC India projects that India's per capita income could exceed USD 26,000 by 2047, nearly 13 times the current level, assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 12%, a modest deceleration in population growth, and a gradual appreciation of the INR against the USD after an initial period of depreciation. This level of income would place India on par with present-day economies like Spain and Portugal.
However, several challenges could hinder India's progress. A World Bank report highlights the "middle-income trap," where countries struggle to transition from middle to high-income status. To avoid this trap, India must sustain a high growth rate while addressing structural issues such as bureaucratic red tape, labor market inefficiencies, and inadequate infrastructure.
Other key factors include skilling the youth, expanding education, increasing women's workforce participation, and promoting sustainable and inclusive growth. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) also emphasizes the need for further liberalization of foreign direct investment (FDI) policies, reduced tariffs, and improvements in the investment environment, infrastructure, and logistics.
Despite the challenges, India possesses several advantages. Its demographic dividend, with a large and young workforce, presents a significant opportunity. Moreover, India's growing political standing, strong ties with the West, and a thriving diaspora contribute to its potential as a global superpower. NITI Aayog projects India's economy to reach nearly USD 30 trillion by 2047. Bain & Company estimates a GDP of approximately $23-$35 trillion by 2047, requiring sustained annual growth of 8%-10% and depends on sectoral transformations, technological advancements, and workforce readiness.
