As the July 9th deadline approaches for the U.S. to potentially reimpose higher tariffs on imports from various countries, a flurry of activity is underway as nations scramble to secure trade deals with the United States. The Trump administration had previously suspended these "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days to allow for negotiations, setting an ambitious goal of reaching numerous trade agreements within this period. However, with the deadline looming, it appears unlikely that the U.S. will achieve the sweeping global trade reforms it initially envisioned.
One of the key countries in focus is India, where negotiators are engaged in intense discussions to finalize a trade deal before the deadline. An Indian team, led by chief negotiator Rajesh Agrawal, has been in Washington to iron out the details of a potential agreement. The outcome of these negotiations is particularly significant as the U.S. has suspended a 26% levy on Indian imports until July 9th. If no deal is reached or the deadline isn't extended, Indian exports to the U.S. could face these higher tariffs.
The trade deal between India and the U.S. is expected to focus on key sectors such as agriculture, automobiles, industrial goods, and labor-intensive products. However, some sticking points remain, particularly regarding agricultural concessions. The U.S. is reportedly pushing for greater access to the Indian market for dairy and agricultural items like genetically modified (GM) crops, apples, and nuts. These are sensitive issues for India, as opening up these sectors could impact domestic farmers. India has traditionally not opened its dairy sector in its free trade agreements. India, on the other hand, is seeking duty concessions for its labor-intensive sectors like textiles, gems and jewellery.
Despite the challenges, both sides are reportedly working towards a comprehensive, multi-sectoral first phase of a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by October. President Trump has also hinted at a potentially "very big" deal with India, suggesting that the U.S. aims to "open up India" through these trade negotiations.
However, the path to a trade deal isn't without obstacles. The U.S. lacks a valid Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), which could limit its ability to reduce tariffs. India is also seeking assurances that the U.S. will withdraw all existing and potential retaliatory tariffs, including the 26% reciprocal tariff. Furthermore, disagreements persist over market access in agriculture and other sensitive areas.
As the deadline approaches, President Trump has made comments suggesting flexibility, stating that the administration could do "whatever we want" with the deadline, including potentially shortening or extending it. He also indicated that he might send letters to countries, informing them of the tariff rates they would be paying.
It remains uncertain whether the U.S. will extend the July 9th deadline or whether a trade deal with India, or other countries, will be finalized by then. If agreements aren't reached, countries could face the reimposition of higher tariff rates, potentially impacting the global economy. Some experts suggest that even if deals are announced, they may be limited in scope, addressing only a select set of issues and leaving many specifics to be negotiated later.
