Bitcoin's potential to reach staggering new heights is a recurring theme in cryptocurrency analysis, with various models attempting to predict its future price. One such model, focusing on the relationship between Bitcoin's price and the global M2 money supply, suggests a potential target of around $170,000.
The M2 money supply encompasses cash in circulation, checking accounts, savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and money market funds. The core argument is that an increasing M2 money supply leads to higher inflation and a weaker US dollar, which in turn benefits Bitcoin due to its scarcity and perceived value as a hedge against inflation.
Several analysts have observed a correlation between the global M2 money supply and Bitcoin's price movements. This correlation suggests that as global liquidity rises, Bitcoin's price tends to follow. Some analysts use predictive offset models, shifting M2 data forward by a set number of weeks (e.g., 78 or 108 days) to project Bitcoin's future price.
For example, one analysis suggested that if Bitcoin follows a 78-day offset of the global M2 supply, its price could reach $132,000. Alternatively, if it mirrors a 108-day offset model, the price target could be as high as $140,000. While these specific targets differ from the $170,000 mentioned in the title, they highlight the bullish sentiment stemming from the M2 money supply analysis.
However, it's important to note that the correlation between M2 and Bitcoin's price is a subject of debate. Some analysts argue that the M2 money supply is not a reliable predictor of Bitcoin's price, with one expert calling models that draw a close correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2 a case of data illiteracy and overfitting.
Despite the controversy, the M2 money supply remains a closely watched indicator by many crypto analysts. The US M2 money supply has surged to a record high of $21.8 trillion, driven by government spending in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. This increase in liquidity, coupled with Bitcoin's limited supply, could indeed create a favorable environment for further price appreciation.
Other factors also contribute to the bullish outlook for Bitcoin. These include the dynamics of Bitcoin's supply and demand. Bitcoin halving events, which reduce the rate at which new coins are created, further constrain the supply and potentially drive up the price.
Technical analysis of Bitcoin's price charts also suggests positive momentum. Bitcoin price has formed a cup-and-handle pattern and a bullish flag pattern, which typically signal further gains.
In conclusion, while the $170,000 price target remains a projection, the analysis of the global M2 money supply, combined with other fundamental and technical factors, paints a potentially bullish picture for Bitcoin's future. Investors should, however, approach these predictions with caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.