The question of where the next Dalai Lama will be born is a complex issue with significant geopolitical implications. The current Dalai Lama, who will turn 90 years old on July 6th, 2025, has stated that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue after his death through reincarnation. He has also asserted that the authority to recognize his future reincarnation rests solely with the Gaden Phodrang Trust based in India. This declaration has intensified the long-standing debate over who has the right to choose his successor, with China asserting its own claims to the process.
Lobsang Sangay, the former Sikyong (political leader) of the Central Tibetan Administration, has stated that the reincarnation of the next Dalai Lama will have major geopolitical implications, and China should not have any role in the reincarnation, search or training of the next Dalai Lama. He has also called India the "closest ally" of the Tibetan people.
Several factors support the possibility of the next Dalai Lama being born in India. Firstly, the current Dalai Lama has lived in exile in India since 1959, after fleeing Tibet following a failed uprising against Chinese rule. Dharamshala, India, has since become the center of the Tibetan government-in-exile and a vibrant hub of Tibetan culture and learning. This makes India a natural place for the reincarnation to occur. Secondly, the Dalai Lama himself has stated that his successor will be born outside China, in the "free world". This declaration is a direct challenge to Beijing's claim that it alone has the authority to approve the next religious leader. Thirdly, there is a significant Tibetan refugee population in India, with around 100,000 Tibetans having set up a government in exile. This makes it plausible to choose a successor from this community.
China, however, insists that the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama must be approved by the Chinese government. They claim that the successor must be found within China's Tibetan areas, giving the Communist authorities power over who is chosen. They cite historical precedents and religious rituals to support their claim. However, many Tibetan Buddhists reject China's interference in their spiritual practices.
The selection of the next Dalai Lama is a deeply spiritual process that has been followed for centuries. It typically involves senior monastic disciples who look for spiritual signs and visions to identify the reincarnation. This process can take several years, and the identified child undergoes rigorous training to prepare them for their future role. The Dalai Lama has emphasized that this process should be carried out in accordance with past traditions.
The ভারত (India) government has also made its position clear. Kiren Rijiju, the Union Minister for Minority Affairs, stated that the decision regarding the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama lies solely with the current Dalai Lama and the conventions established by him. This stance rejects any Chinese interference in the process.
The issue of the Dalai Lama's succession is further complicated by the fact that China has, in the past, attempted to assert its control over Tibetan Buddhism by appointing its own version of religious leaders, such as the Panchen Lama. This has led to a situation where there are two rival claimants, one recognized by the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan community, and another by the Chinese government.
The selection of the next Dalai Lama will have far-reaching consequences for the future of Tibet and Tibetan Buddhism. If the next Dalai Lama is born in India and recognized by the Gaden Phodrang Trust, it would further strengthen the legitimacy of the Tibetan government-in-exile and reinforce the Dalai Lama's legacy. It would also send a strong message to China that it cannot control the spiritual destiny of the Tibetan people. However, it would also likely further strain relations between India and China.
