India faces a delicate balancing act regarding the Dalai Lama, needing to avoid both appearing subservient to China and insensitive to the Tibetan people. This comes at a time when the Dalai Lama approaches his 90th birthday. Robert Barnett, a leading Tibet scholar at SOAS, London, has provided insights into this intricate situation, particularly concerning the Dalai Lama's succession.
The Dalai Lama's recent announcement about his succession is seen as more than just a theological decision, especially as China has long desired control over the process. For many years, the Dalai Lama has alluded to various possibilities regarding his succession, including unconventional options, all subtly conveying to China that its claim to have the sole right to control reincarnations is religiously unfounded. He has also stated that the decision of his return would depend on the wishes of his followers. To that end, his officials have spent the last year gathering written opinions from the wider Buddhist community.
India, which has hosted the Dalai Lama since he fled Tibet in 1959, has deep stakes in the future of the Dalai Lama. The Dalai Lama has lived in India since fleeing Tibet in 1959. Following the Dalai Lama's announcement, India has reaffirmed its neutral stance on religious matters, including the Dalai Lama's reincarnation, after China raised objections to remarks made by an Indian minister. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) stated that the Indian government does not take a position on matters concerning beliefs and practices of faith and religion and has always upheld freedom of religion for all in India.
China, however, views the Dalai Lama as a separatist and insists that it has a veto over the choice of the next Dalai Lama. China maintains that the successor to the 14th Dalai Lama can only be appointed through a "traditional" process that includes approval by the central government. Following remarks by an Indian minister backing the Dalai Lama's announcement about his succession plan, China urged India to act cautiously on Tibet-related issues to avoid damaging bilateral relations.
The succession issue could become a tool for China to pressure foreign governments to marginalize Tibetan exile organizations. Some experts believe that Chinese strategists see the succession issue as an opportunity to frustrate the Tibetan exile project, while others anticipate another possible Tibetan uprising. The possibility of two rival Dalai Lamas – one appointed by lamas faithful to the current Dalai Lama and another appointed by the Chinese government – is a likely, though unprecedented, scenario.
The disappearance of the Panchen Lama in 1995, who was recognized by the Dalai Lama, marked a turning point. China's subsequent appointment of its own candidate was widely rejected by Tibetan Buddhists. This event led China to believe that it should control not only the selection of the child but also whether a lama can reincarnate, where, and who should search for them, excluding the Dalai Lama from the process.
Robert Barnett has also commented on the challenges faced by the Tibetan exile community, including claims of persecution against Shugden practitioners. He has acknowledged instances of "persecution" that were not adequately addressed by the Tibetan administration.
In conclusion, India's approach to the Dalai Lama and the issue of his succession requires careful consideration of both its relationship with China and its commitment to religious freedom and the rights of the Tibetan people.
