As the 17th BRICS summit commences in Rio de Janeiro, all eyes are on India as the bloc grapples with pressing global issues, including U.S. tariffs and the ongoing situation in Israel. The summit, hosted by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, brings together leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, along with newer members Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Indonesia, and the United Arab Emirates.
A central point of discussion is expected to be U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies, particularly the imposition of unilateral tariffs. While a draft statement suggests that BRICS leaders will voice "serious concern" about these measures, it remains uncertain whether the final declaration will explicitly name the United States. This reluctance to directly challenge the U.S. reflects existing divisions within the bloc, with some members, like India, maintaining closer ties with Washington.
Since assuming office in January, President Trump has pursued a protectionist trade agenda, threatening allies and rivals alike with punitive tariffs. His administration's stance has been particularly firm towards countries perceived as challenging the dominance of the U.S. dollar. In January 2025, Trump threatened BRICS nations with 100% tariffs if they attempted to create an alternative currency. These actions have raised concerns among BRICS members, who view them as unfair and inconsistent with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.
The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on BRICS economies is a significant concern. Analysts project a substantial reduction in trade volumes between the U.S. and BRICS nations, with China, which accounts for a large portion of BRICS exports to the U.S., potentially bearing the brunt. Some analysts predict that it could take three to five years for most BRICS nations to adjust to the loss of the U.S. market. A simulation of a 100% tariff on BRICS countries could cause lower GDP and higher inflation than otherwise. For the U.S., GDP could be significantly lower than it would be without the tariffs.
In response to these challenges, BRICS nations are exploring strategies to strengthen intra-BRICS trade, reduce trade barriers, and promote the use of national currencies in transactions. The BRICS Economic Partnership Strategy 2025 prioritizes trade, investment, finance, digital transformation, and sustainable development, focusing on economic resilience and technological innovation.
Beyond trade, the BRICS summit is also expected to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A draft statement includes a proposal for leaders to express "grave concern" about the situation in Palestinian territory, particularly the resumption of Israeli attacks and the obstruction of humanitarian aid to Gaza. The language under consideration may include a condemnation of the use of starvation as a method of warfare and a call for the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip.
However, achieving a unified BRICS position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is proving difficult. While some members may push for a stronger stance, others are wary of jeopardizing their relationships with Israel. India, in particular, has emerged as one of Israel's biggest defenders. These differing perspectives highlight the internal complexities within BRICS and the challenges of forging a common foreign policy.
Despite these challenges, BRICS remains an important platform for India to advance its interests and promote a multipolar world order. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to raise the issue of cross-border terrorism in his address, seeking to sensitize the international community about Pakistan's role in promoting terrorism. India's commitment to BRICS reflects its strategic autonomy and its vision for a more equitable and prosperous world. The bloc's expansion to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the UAE, and Indonesia further amplifies India's economic diplomacy and provides new opportunities for trade and investment.
