A recent pre-election survey indicates that Shashi Tharoor, a prominent Congress MP, is the most preferred choice for Chief Minister of Kerala. However, this preference doesn't necessarily translate to an easy path, as the state Congress leadership's stance remains uncertain. The survey, conducted by VoteVibe, highlights a significant anti-incumbency sentiment against the current Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF).
The VoteVibe survey was conducted over a fortnight, encompassing over 10,000 respondents from all districts and religious communities in Kerala. The results indicate that Tharoor is the frontrunner for the UDF's Chief Ministerial candidate, garnering 28.3% support. He is followed by V.D. Satheesan, who has 15.4% support. On the LDF side, former Health Minister K.K. Shailaja is the preferred choice with 24.2% support, while the current Chief Minister, Pinarayi Vijayan, lags behind with only 17.5% support.
Several factors contribute to Tharoor's popularity. Amitabh Tiwari, a political analyst and Founding Partner of Vote Vibe, suggests that Tharoor's recent media presence may have influenced public perception. Tharoor enjoys stronger support among men (30%) than women (27%), and his popularity is highest among voters aged 55 and above (34.2%), compared to just 20.3% support among the 18–24 age group.
The survey also reveals a strong anti-incumbency sentiment in Kerala. A substantial 47.9% of respondents expressed strong anti-incumbency feelings towards Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. This sentiment increases with age, rising from 37% among those aged 18 to 24 to 45% among those above 55. Furthermore, 62% of participants were inclined to vote out their current MLAs, while only 23% supported retaining their sitting representatives. This widespread dissatisfaction with the current leadership points to a potential shift in the political landscape.
Despite Tharoor's popularity, challenges remain. A concerning factor for the UDF is that 27.1% of voters remain uncertain about the UDF's leadership in the state. The survey also highlights a leadership crisis within the ruling LDF, with a massive 41.5% uncertainty among voters about their preferred leader. Political analyst J. Prabhash has urged caution in interpreting the survey results.
In terms of political trust, the United Democratic Front (UDF) leads the field, with 38.9% of respondents backing its development agenda. The LDF follows with 27.8%, while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) registered 23.1%. These figures suggest that the UDF is currently perceived as the most trustworthy political alliance in Kerala.
The upcoming Assembly elections in Kerala, expected to be held in April/May 2026, will be crucial in determining whether Shashi Tharoor's popularity translates into a leadership role. The Congress party will need to address the concerns of the state Congress chief and unite behind a strong candidate to capitalize on the anti-incumbency sentiment and secure victory.
