A recent Reuters poll indicates that independent economists are casting doubt on the accuracy of India's official unemployment data, suggesting that the real jobless rate is significantly higher than reported. The economists surveyed believe that the official figures mask the true extent of joblessness and underemployment in the country. Some economists estimate the actual jobless rate to be around twice the official figure.
Concerns about Job Creation and Data Accuracy
Despite India's rapid economic growth, the creation of new jobs has not kept pace, leading to widespread discontent. Experts have voiced concerns about outdated job definitions used in official statistics, which may not accurately capture the complexities of India's labor market. A significant portion of the Indian workforce is engaged in the informal sector, often working multiple jobs with irregular pay, making it difficult to measure employment accurately. The official data source on employment and unemployment indicators in India is the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), conducted by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation since 2017-18.
Impact on Women's Labor Force Participation
The poll also highlights the challenges faced by women in the Indian labor market. Even when jobs are available, safety concerns and unpaid care work often prevent women from applying. Indian women spend a disproportionate amount of time on household duties compared to men, further limiting their ability to participate in the workforce.
Expert Recommendations
To address the issues of job creation and unemployment, experts are calling for policy changes focused on boosting manufacturing, improving education, and enhancing skills development. These measures are seen as crucial for generating quality employment opportunities and addressing the problem of wage stagnation.
Official Data and Alternative Estimates
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) conducts the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), which is the primary source of official employment and unemployment data in India. According to the PLFS, the unemployment rate in India has been declining in recent years. However, some economists and organizations offer alternative estimates that paint a different picture. For example, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) is a well-respected business information company that collects its own data on the Indian economy and provides estimates of unemployment rates.
Historical Trends
India's unemployment rate averaged 8.53% between 2018 and 2025. The rate reached an all-time high of 20.80% in June 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic and a record low of 5.10% in April 2025. In June 2025, the unemployment rate stood at 5.6%, unchanged from the previous month.
The Need for Accurate Data and Effective Policies
Accurate and reliable unemployment data is essential for informed policy making and effective interventions to address the challenges of job creation and unemployment in India. The concerns raised by independent economists underscore the need for a thorough review of the methodologies used to collect and analyze employment data, as well as a renewed focus on policies that promote inclusive growth and generate quality employment opportunities for all.
