The Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) between India and the United Kingdom is poised to significantly boost Indian exports across various sectors, thanks to near-complete tariff elimination. With duty-free access granted on nearly 99% of Indian goods, covering almost the entire value of trade, key sectors are now set for exponential growth. This landmark agreement not only enhances India's competitiveness but also promises substantial benefits for Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) and the broader economy.
One of the most significant advantages of the CETA is the zero-duty access for India's labor-intensive sectors. Industries such as textiles and clothing, leather and footwear, gems and jewellery, and sports goods, which previously faced tariffs ranging from 4% to 16%, will now enjoy complete tariff liberalization. This will level the playing field for Indian exporters, enabling them to compete more effectively with rivals in countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam. In the textile sector, the removal of tariffs, which were previously as high as 12%, is expected to spur large-scale exports of value-added garments. Similarly, the leather and footwear sector will benefit from the elimination of duties up to 16%.
The agricultural sector also stands to gain considerably from the India-UK FTA. Over 95% of agricultural and processed food tariff lines will attract zero duties, encompassing a wide range of products such as fruits, vegetables, cereals, turmeric, pepper, cardamom, and processed foods like ready-to-eat meals, mango pulp, and pickles. This duty-free access is projected to boost agricultural exports by over 20% in the next three years, contributing significantly to India's goal of achieving $100 billion in agri-exports by 2030. Emerging products like jackfruit, millets, and organic herbs will also find new market access, helping farmers diversify and stabilize their incomes. While India has excluded sensitive sectors such as dairy, apples, oats and edible oils from tariff concessions, the agreement still provides substantial opportunities for growth in the agricultural sector.
The marine sector is another area poised for expansion. The elimination of UK tariffs on India's marine products, including shrimp, tuna, fishmeal, and feeds, which were previously taxed between 4.2% and 8.5%, is expected to unlock rapid growth. Despite the UK's $5.4 billion marine import market, India's share remains at just 2.25%, indicating a significant untapped opportunity. With the FTA's Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures, Indian exporters will be better equipped to meet UK standards, reducing rejections and enhancing trust.
In the realm of engineering, a number of goods will gain zero-duty market access. With tariffs eliminated (as high as 18%), engineering exports to the UK could nearly double in the next five years, potentially reaching over $7.5 billion by 2029-30. Key products such as electric machinery, auto parts, industrial equipment, and construction machinery are projected to experience substantial growth.
The India-UK FTA also extends significant benefits to the electronics sector. Exports of smartphones, optical fiber cables, and inverters to the UK will now attract zero duty, strengthening India's position in the UK market. This move aligns with India's ambitious goal of achieving $500 billion in electronics exports by 2030. The FTA also opens up export potential for Indian software firms, with the inclusion of IT and IT-enabled services, projected to grow at 15-20% annually.
Furthermore, the FTA is expected to trigger a substantial increase in India's chemical exports to the UK, potentially reaching $650-750 million in the fiscal year 2025-26. Similarly, India's gems and jewellery exports to the UK are anticipated to double in the next 2-3 years, driven by tariff relaxations. The services sector will also witness wide-ranging benefits, with zero duty on major sectors. Indian professionals will be exempt from UK social security payments for three years. Overall, the India-UK CETA represents a significant step towards enhanced economic cooperation and trade between the two nations. By providing zero-duty access to a wide array of products, the agreement is set to boost India's exports, create new opportunities for businesses, and drive economic growth.