The once-celebrated camaraderie between the United States and India, symbolized by the "Howdy Modi" and "Namaste Trump" rallies, appears to have significantly deteriorated. These events, held in 2019 and 2020 respectively, showcased a seemingly strong bond between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and then-US President Donald Trump, with both leaders publicly displaying their friendship. However, recent developments suggest a strained relationship, marked by trade disputes, disagreements on foreign policy, and growing public displays of resentment.
Several factors have contributed to this downturn. Trade has become a major sticking point, with President Trump imposing tariffs on Indian goods, including an additional 25% tariff as a consequence for India's continued purchase of Russian oil. These tariffs have been criticized as unfair and overly aggressive, especially after months of negotiations that were supposedly aimed at finalizing a trade deal. India, on the other hand, has resisted U.S. demands for trade concessions on agriculture, dairy, and seafood, sectors that employ millions of people.
Geopolitical interests have also diverged. India has maintained its long-standing position that issues with Pakistan, its nuclear rival, should be handled bilaterally, without external interference. However, President Trump's attempts to mediate on Kashmir and his engagement with Pakistani officials have upset New Delhi. Furthermore, India was reportedly displeased when Trump preempted a ceasefire announcement on May 10, claiming it was a "US-brokered ceasefire".
The personal styles of the two leaders may also be playing a role. Both Modi and Trump are known for their populist approaches and strong personalities. While their initial interactions were marked by mutual admiration, their differing views on trade and foreign policy have led to public disagreements and a sense of unease. The dispute between them has taken a public dimension, complicating the search for solutions.
Despite the recent strains, the underlying strategic interests that have driven the U.S.-India relationship for decades remain relevant. The end of the Cold War provided the initial impetus for closer ties, and successive governments in both countries have worked to build a bipartisan consensus based on mutual trust and converging interests. Cooperation in areas such as defense, counterterrorism, and the Indo-Pacific region remains crucial for both nations.
Looking ahead, it is important for both the U.S. and India to manage their differences and focus on their shared strategic goals. While personal relationships between leaders can play a role, the relationship should primarily be driven by national interests and patient negotiation. As one article noted, the U.S. is larger than Trump, just as India is larger than Modi, suggesting that the long-term interests of both countries should transcend individual personalities.
