Indian stock markets are bracing for a potentially muted opening on August 6, 2025, as investors await the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy decision. Global cues suggest a tepid start for benchmark indices like the Nifty 50 and Sensex.

RBI Policy in Focus

The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) began its meeting on August 4, and the outcomes are scheduled to be announced by Governor Sanjay Malhotra at 10:00 AM today. A consensus among economists suggests that the RBI is likely to maintain the status quo on interest rates. Despite calls for a rate cut to further support economic growth, the central bank is expected to hold the repo rate steady at 5.5%.

The RBI has already implemented a sharp rate-cutting cycle over its past three policy meetings, lowering the benchmark interest rate from 6.5% to 5.5% in total. Complementing this, the central bank also delivered a substantial 100-basis-point reduction in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) during its previous meeting, a move expected to infuse approximately ₹2.5 trillion into the banking system by November 2025.

The MPC's decision comes amidst a backdrop of global trade tensions, including the United States' imposition of a 25% tariff on Indian goods. The RBI's commentary will be closely analyzed for insights into the central bank's position, GDP growth projections, and CPI inflation trends.

Market Expectations and Analysis

Market participants anticipate that the RBI will pause and evaluate the impact of previous rate cuts, especially with inflation expected to remain below 4% over the next two quarters. Some experts believe the central bank may use this meeting to reassess global uncertainties and gauge the impact of past actions before moving further.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, noted that the Sensex is exhibiting non-directional activity, with traders awaiting a breakout on either side. He identified 81,000 as a key resistance level, with a potential pullback up to 81,500-81,600 above that. On the downside, 80,500-80,300 will serve as key support zones, and a break below could lead to a further slip to 80,000-79,700. Chouhan suggests level-based trading as an ideal strategy given the current market conditions.

Nifty and Bank Nifty Technical Levels

Analysts indicate that the Nifty 50's support zone has moved to 24,400-24,500 levels. Structurally, the Nifty is expected to oscillate within a consolidation band of 24,400–25,000. A decisive breach below 24,400 could trigger a corrective move towards 24,200. On the upside, the Nifty 50 faces resistance at 25,000-25,200 levels. The Bank Nifty's key support is identified at 55,200–54,900 levels, with key resistance at 56,300–56,500 levels.

Other Factors Influencing the Market

• Global Cues: Wall Street closed with solid gains, with the Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P rising. European indices also posted modest gains, suggesting a supportive global backdrop for Indian equities.
• FII Selling: Foreign investors continued their selling streak, offloading equities worth ₹2,566.50 crore on August 4. While domestic institutional investors (DIIs) absorbed the pressure with net purchases of ₹4,386.30 crore, sustained FII outflows may keep market sentiment cautious.
• SEBI's Derivatives Curbs: Shares of capital market-linked companies fell sharply following reports that SEBI is considering measures to curb excessive speculation in options trading.
• Tata Capital IPO: Tata Capital has filed a draft prospectus with SEBI for a ₹17,000 crore IPO, a significant step toward becoming a publicly listed NBFC.

In conclusion, the Indian stock market is expected to open cautiously on August 6, 2025, with the RBI's monetary policy announcement being the key driver. While a status quo on interest rates is widely anticipated, the central bank's commentary and future guidance will be crucial for market direction.