The evolving dynamics between India and China, particularly in light of recent global events, present a complex geopolitical landscape where Russia risks being marginalized. While Moscow has historically viewed both countries as key components of its vision for a multipolar world, the growing alignment between Beijing and New Delhi could potentially leave Russia on the sidelines.

Several factors contribute to this shifting dynamic. The imposition of tariffs by the United States on Indian goods, ostensibly as a punitive measure for India's continued oil purchases from Russia, has created a scenario where both China and India find common ground in their resentment towards Washington's policies. This has led to a visible warming of relations between India and China, including the resumption of direct flights and explorations of joint ventures in critical tech sectors.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit signals a potential shift in India's strategic alignment. This visit, the first in over seven years, takes place against the backdrop of strained relations with the U.S. and a growing need for strategic autonomy. The SCO summit itself is viewed as a platform for demonstrating solidarity among the Global South, potentially creating a counterweight to U.S. pressure.

The Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral, a framework conceived to counterbalance U.S. influence, faces challenges due to historical tensions and diverging interests, particularly between India and China. While Russia seeks to revive the RIC as a shield against political and economic isolation, the long-standing border dispute and mutual suspicion between India and China cast a shadow on the bloc's cohesion. China's reluctance to cooperate with India on issues like terrorism further complicates the trilateral dynamic.

Despite these challenges, the potential for increased cooperation between India and China is evident. Both countries share a desire for a more equitable global order and are seeking ways to navigate the complexities of the current geopolitical landscape. The meeting between Modi and Xi Jinping at the SCO summit provides an opportunity to address outstanding issues and explore avenues for collaboration.

However, India's strategic advantages, including access to U.S. technology, capital, and global supply chains, cannot be easily substituted by closer ties with Russia or China. Russia's alignment with Beijing is considerably deeper, with trade exceeding $200 billion and increasing integration into China's financial system. In a revived RIC bloc, India's economic leverage would be limited compared to its established role in the U.S.-centered global economic network.

Ultimately, the evolving relationship between India and China presents both opportunities and challenges for Russia. While a closer alignment between the two Asian giants could potentially create a stronger counterweight to U.S. influence, it also risks marginalizing Russia if its own relations with India and China do not keep pace. Russia's ability to navigate this complex landscape will depend on its willingness to address historical tensions, foster greater trust, and find mutually beneficial areas of cooperation.