India's diesel exports to Europe have experienced a significant surge, with shipments climbing by 137% year-on-year in August to reach 242,000 barrels per day (bpd). This substantial increase is primarily attributed to European buyers anticipating the European Union's (EU) impending ban on fuels refined from Russian crude, set to take effect in January 2026.
Several factors have contributed to this surge. One key factor is the upcoming EU ban on fuels refined from Russian crude. This ban has prompted European buyers to seek alternative sources of diesel, and India has emerged as a prominent supplier. Anticipated winter demand and a major refinery's unexpected decision to bring forward maintenance schedules have also played a role. Shell's Pernis refinery in the Netherlands, for instance, advanced its planned turnaround from 2026, which surprised the market and increased demand for imports. Some analysts suggest that advancing maintenance schedules could also be a strategic move in preparation for the post-January 2026 market, when fuels refined from Russian oil may face restrictions in Europe.
Different energy cargo trackers offer slightly varying estimates of India's diesel exports to Europe in August. Kpler, a global real-time data and analytics provider, reported a 137% year-on-year increase to 242,000 bpd, which is also 73% month-on-month and 124% higher than the average of the preceding 12 months. Vortexa, another energy cargo tracker, estimated India's diesel exports to Europe at 228,316 bpd in August, marking a 166% increase year-on-year and a 36% increase compared to July. These discrepancies in export estimates are common due to the different methodologies employed by shipping data trackers.
The rise in India's diesel exports to Europe is part of a broader trend that has seen India become a major exporter of fuel to the EU. In the first three quarters of 2024, India's fuel exports to the EU jumped by 58%, with a significant portion of these exports believed to be derived from refining discounted Russian oil. This situation has arisen because, while the EU has imposed a price cap and embargo on direct imports of Russian crude oil, it has not restricted the import of refined petroleum products made from Russian crude. This loophole has allowed countries like India to import Russian crude, refine it, and then export the finished products to Europe.
Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Europe typically imported an average of 154,000 bpd of diesel and jet fuel from India. This figure has almost doubled since then, highlighting India's growing importance as an energy supplier to Europe.
It's worth noting that India has also emerged as a key diesel supplier to Ukraine. In July 2025, India accounted for 15.5% of Ukraine's diesel imports, surpassing all other countries. This has occurred even as the United States has imposed tariffs on Indian goods due to India's continued imports of Russian crude.
Looking ahead, analysts anticipate that European demand for Indian diesel will remain strong throughout the rest of 2025. However, Europe’s reliance on supply from India could shift supply from the U.S, potentially creating a tighter market for diesel.
