North India is experiencing an exceptionally wet monsoon season, with the last two weeks marking the rainiest period in 14 years. From August 22 to September 4, the region received nearly three times the normal rainfall, leading to extreme weather events across Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand.

Rainfall Statistics and Surplus

During these 14 days, North India recorded 205.3 mm of rain, significantly exceeding the normal of 73.1 mm. This intense spell has pushed the region towards its wettest monsoon in 37 years, since 1988. As of September 4, North India has received 691.7 mm of rain since June 1, which is about 37% higher than normal. Even with normal rainfall for the remainder of September, the total is expected to surpass 750 mm. This would make it the second-highest rainfall in the last 50 years, only behind the 813.5 mm recorded in 1988. The region's total monsoon rainfall surplus climbed from 11.6% on August 22 to nearly 37% on September 5.

Contributing Factors

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has attributed this prolonged intense rain to the interaction of two weather systems. A "western disturbance" bringing moist winds from the Mediterranean Sea converged with monsoon winds from the east. This back-to-back interaction occurred first from August 23 to 27 and again from August 29, expected to last until September 5.

Regional Disparities

While North India is experiencing a significant surplus, other regions show contrasting patterns. For instance, Meghalaya faces rainfall deficits, while Rajasthan and Ladakh have reported surpluses. From June 1 to September 2, some cities in Rajasthan, like Jaipur and Jodhpur, have seen rainfall increases of 85% and 79%, respectively. In Ladakh, rainfall has surged by 392%.

Impact and Aftermath

The heavy rainfall has led to severe consequences, including cloudbursts, floods, and landslides. Punjab experienced its worst flooding in decades, with overflowing rivers and breached canals inundating farmland and displacing people. Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand reported significant damage to infrastructure, including washed-out bridges and roads. The Yamuna River in Delhi reached its third-highest recorded level, causing widespread inundation.

Expert Opinions and Climate Change

Experts suggest that climate change is a significant factor in the monsoon's unpredictability, leading to heavy rains. The increase in "extremely heavy" rainfall events in August underscores this concern. Interactions between western disturbances and monsoon currents are also contributing to the increased rainfall in the region.

Predictions and Warnings

The IMD has predicted that the southwest monsoon is expected to remain vigorous in September, with above-normal rainfall likely. However, they also noted that some areas in the northeast and extreme southern peninsular India might receive normal to below-normal rainfall. There are concerns that continued heavy downpours could worsen the situation in the hill states and damage standing kharif crops.