Despite a push from U.S. President Donald Trump, the European Union (EU) is unlikely to impose tariffs on India and China for their continued purchase of Russian oil. Trump has reportedly urged the EU to slap tariffs as high as 100% on both countries in an effort to pressure Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

Trump made his request during a meeting between senior U.S. and EU officials in Washington. According to reports, Trump suggested that these tariffs should remain in place until China and India cease buying Russian crude oil. He believes that cutting off this revenue stream would significantly hamper Russia's war efforts. Trump has expressed frustration with the difficulty in reaching a peace deal.

Trump has already increased tariffs on Indian imports to 50%. Tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. currently stand at 30%. Trump has also indicated that the U.S. is prepared to "mirror" any tariffs imposed by the EU on Beijing and New Delhi, potentially leading to a substantial increase in U.S. levies on imports from both countries.

However, EU sources suggest that the bloc is unlikely to follow Trump's advice. The EU imposes tariffs only after conducting thorough investigations, typically lasting months, to establish a legally sound justification. So far, the EU has only imposed tariffs in the context of the Ukraine war on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers and farm products. The justification for those measures was to prevent creating a dependency that could be exploited and to avoid harm to EU fertilizer producers.

Furthermore, the EU is currently in the process of finalizing a trade deal with India, which it would be hesitant to jeopardize. EU officials also suggest that санкции specific entities and opening the door to delist them if they ended their business with Russia.

Despite the EU's likely reluctance, Trump's stance on the issue seems to be evolving. He recently stated that he was looking to reset trade relations with New Delhi. In a social media post, Trump expressed optimism about reaching a "successful conclusion" in trade negotiations with India and referred to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a "very good friend". Modi responded on X, expressing confidence that the talks would "pave the way for unlocking the limitless potential of the India-US partnership" and said he looks forward to speaking with President Trump.

The situation is further complicated by India's delicate balancing act between its long-standing ties with Russia and its growing strategic partnership with the United States. Modi recently met with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.