Speculation is intensifying around a potential presidential pardon for Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the former CEO of Binance, with odds on the prediction market Polymarket experiencing a notable surge. This increase in betting activity coincides with a subtle but significant change in Zhao's social media presence, further fueling speculation within the cryptocurrency community.
The shift in Polymarket odds reflects a growing belief among traders that Zhao may receive a pardon from former U.S. President Donald Trump. As of September 8, 2025, the implied probability of a pardon reached 35%. This figure has fluctuated between 20% and 35% since May 2025, demonstrating the market's sensitivity to news and rumors surrounding the case. On September 18, 2025, Polymarket odds on CZ receiving a pardon from Trump reached 45%. At one point, the odds even reached an all-time high of 64% before dropping again to 45%.
Adding to the intrigue, Zhao recently modified his X (formerly Twitter) profile, removing the "ex-@binance" tag that he had added after stepping down as CEO in 2023. This seemingly minor alteration has been interpreted by some as a sign that Zhao may be positioning himself for a return to a more active role within the company.
Zhao's legal troubles stem from a plea deal with U.S. regulators in late 2023, which led to his resignation as Binance CEO. He subsequently served a four-month prison sentence in 2024 after pleading guilty to a money laundering charge related to Binance's anti-money laundering (AML) program. In addition to Zhao's personal legal battles, Binance agreed to a $4.3 billion settlement with U.S. officials and is currently subject to three years of compliance monitoring.
In May 2025, Zhao confirmed that he had instructed his legal team to apply for a pardon from Trump. A presidential pardon could potentially allow CZ to resume a managing or operating role at Binance, an outcome that the exchange had previously stated was off the table as part of the deal with U.S. officials.
However, any potential easing of restrictions on Zhao or Binance is facing scrutiny from lawmakers. Some U.S. senators have raised concerns about Binance's compliance with the terms of its settlement, as well as the exchange's financial ties to Trump-linked entities. These concerns have led to calls for greater transparency regarding Binance's dealings with U.S. authorities.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding his future, Zhao remains an influential figure in the crypto space. Recently, he issued a warning about the increasing sophistication of North Korean hackers targeting cryptocurrency companies. Zhao highlighted the various tactics employed by these hackers, including posing as job seekers, impersonating employers, and even bribing employees for access to sensitive data.
Adding to the complex picture, BNB, the native token of the Binance exchange, recently hit a new all-time high, trading near $929 and surpassing the market capitalization of major financial institutions. Some analysts suggest that this surge may be linked to speculation about a potential deal between Binance and the U.S. Department of Justice to ease compliance oversight. On September 18, 2025, BNB hit a new all-time high of $1,005.
The convergence of these factors – the surge in Polymarket odds, Zhao's social media activity, ongoing legal and political scrutiny, and the performance of BNB – has created a volatile situation marked by uncertainty. The crypto community is closely watching to see how these developments unfold and what impact they will have on the future of Zhao and Binance.
