The Indian stock market is poised to be influenced by a mix of domestic and international factors in the coming week of September 22-26, 2025. Here's a breakdown of five key aspects that could drive market movements:

1. Impact of Trump's H-1B Visa Fee Hike

US President Donald Trump's recent proclamation imposing a substantial $100,000 annual fee on H-1B visas is expected to have a ripple effect on Indian IT stocks. This new rule, effective September 21, 2025, increases the financial burden on companies hiring skilled foreign professionals, particularly from India, and threatens the cost-effective staffing model that Indian IT firms have long relied upon for their U.S. projects.

• Short-term Pain: Experts anticipate a potential 10-15% fall in IT stocks as the Indian market reacts to this increased cost. The rise in visa costs makes it difficult for companies to apply for new visas or renew existing ones, potentially forcing employees to return to their home countries.
• Long-term Gain? Some experts believe that in the long run, this could benefit India, as more skilled professionals return and U.S. companies are compelled to outsource more work to India.
• Company Impact: Indian companies sponsored 13,396 H-1B visas. The new order would increase H-1B visa fees from about $13.4 million to $1.34 billion, or about 10% of the combined net profits of TCS, Infosys, HCLTech, Cognizant and LTIMindtree in FY25. Shares of Cognizant Technology Solutions and Infosys have already reacted negatively in the US market.
• US Companies also impacted: US tech companies like NVIDIA, Amazon, Tesla, Meta, and Alphabet are also expected to feel the heat in the long term, potentially facing a talent pool crisis and rising input costs.

2. GST 2.0 Implementation

A significant overhaul of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) framework is scheduled to begin on Monday, September 22, 2025. Based on the recommendations of the 56th GST Council meeting, the government has unveiled a simplified two-tier tax structure. This revamp is expected to boost private final consumption expenditure, potentially leading to ₹2 trillion of extra consumption demand.

• Impact on Consumers: Consumers are beginning to see cheaper daily essentials on store shelves as companies move early to pass on the benefits of reduced GST rates.
• Impact on Companies: Firms are dispatching products with revised price tags and absorbing the tax gap themselves to avoid a last-minute rush and tap into positive buyer sentiment. The government has made re-labeling of unsold stocks with new prices optional and extended the use of existing packaging material until March 31, 2026.
• Sectors to Watch: Experts suggest watching cement, infrastructure, and auto ancillary sectors. Sectors like automobiles, FMCG, consumer durables, jewelry, and apparel could see increased demand.

3. Technical Levels and Market Momentum

The Nifty index displayed strong bullish momentum over the past week, advancing 213 points and forming a bullish candle, marking the third consecutive week of gains.

• Nifty: Immediate resistance levels are seen at 25,500, followed by 25,600 and 25,850. On the downside, support is placed at 25,150 and then at 25,000. A "buy on dips" strategy remains favorable, but traders are advised to maintain a disciplined approach with strict stop-loss measures.
• Bank Nifty: Immediate support is placed at 55,000. A sustained breakdown below this level could trigger fresh selling pressure, with potential targets at 54,830 and 54,500. Key levels to watch are 56,000 on the upside and 54,830 on the downside, which will likely define the next major directional move for Bank Nifty.
• Overall Market: Given the mixed backdrop of domestic policy optimism versus global uncertainty, a positive yet cautious stance is recommended. Investors should focus on resilient, domestic-facing sectors, maintain selective exposure, and avoid aggressive long positions until clearer directional signals emerge.

4. Global Cues and FII Activity

Global factors, including US-India trade talks and expectations of further Fed rate cuts, have been supporting the market. Any change in stance from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in the cash market following the recent Fed rate cut will be closely tracked. Investors will also be monitoring US economic data releases and the impact of ongoing trade tensions or tariff actions, as these will shape foreign flows. Crude oil prices and China's growth outlook remain additional swing factors.

5. Earnings Expectations

The market's future depends on upcoming events and reforms. The Q2 earnings season starts in October, and corporate earnings momentum will guide market direction. The transmission of fiscal and monetary benefits and reforms announced in the last 6-12 months are likely to be visible in corporate earnings from Q3 FY26 onwards.