The relationship between India and Pakistan remains complex, marked by periods of both tension and attempts at de-escalation. Recent events suggest a continuation of this dynamic, with both familiar challenges and new elements shaping the interactions between the two nations.

One significant development is the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Signed in Riyadh during Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's visit, the pact stipulates that any aggression against one country will be considered an aggression against both. India has stated it is carefully examining the implications of this pact for its national security and regional stability, emphasizing that it expects Saudi Arabia to consider "mutual interests and sensitivities" in their strategic partnership with India. Some analysts suggest this pact could potentially draw Saudi Arabia into a conflict with India, given Pakistan's history of conflict with its eastern neighbor.

Adding to the complexities, a recent incident during an Asia Cup cricket match has highlighted the persistent tensions. A perceived lack of sportsmanship from the Indian team, specifically the captain's refusal to shake hands with a Pakistani player, led to outrage in Pakistan and accusations that India is using cricket as a proxy for their tense relationship. This incident was viewed by some observers as the demise of "cricket diplomacy," which had previously served as a means to keep politics off the field.

These events follow a tense period in May, when India and Pakistan engaged in a brief but intense four-day confrontation involving jet fighter dogfights, drone strikes, and artillery exchanges along their shared border. This escalation brought the two nuclear-armed countries closer to war than they had been in decades.

Despite these challenges, there are also indications of potential cooperation. Increased engagement regarding hydroelectric inspections in Kashmir signals a willingness to address climate concerns through collaboration. Experts have also suggested that worsening air pollution could serve as a catalyst for improved bilateral relations in 2025.

However, deep-seated issues continue to hinder progress. Pakistan has accused India of "weaponizing water" to deliberately cause floods, although experts suggest climate change should be the primary focus. The persistent issue of Kashmir remains a significant point of contention, though recent reports indicate that Pakistani officials have avoided mentioning it in discussions with India.

Overall, the India-Pakistan relationship in 2025 appears to be a complex mix of recurring tensions and potential opportunities for cooperation. The new defense pact between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia introduces a fresh element that India is carefully considering, while incidents in sports and accusations regarding water management highlight the ongoing challenges. Whether these factors lead to further escalation or a renewed effort towards dialogue remains to be seen.