Stock Market Today: Trade Setup for Nifty 50, Gift Nifty, India-US Trade Deal and Gold Prices

The Indian stock market is poised for another week of trading influenced by a mix of domestic and global factors. Here's a comprehensive trade setup, considering the Nifty 50 outlook, Gift Nifty trends, potential impact of an India-US trade deal, the role of gold prices, and a selection of stocks to watch.

Nifty 50 Outlook

The Nifty 50 closed at 25,795.15 on Friday, October 24, 2025, down by 0.37%. Technical analysis suggests the index is trading in an uptrend channel. Immediate support is seen in the 25,600–25,700 range, which could act as a demand zone during pullbacks. On the upside, 26,100-26,250 is emerging as a crucial resistance zone; a decisive breakout above this level could trigger further upside, potentially leading to new lifetime highs. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered as long as institutional flows remain supportive.

For Monday, October 27, 2025, if the Nifty 50 opens around or just above 25,659–25,674 and holds above the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) or the day's first high for the initial 5-15 minutes, a momentum long position towards 25,700–25,720 could be considered. Conversely, rejection wicks from 25,720–25,740, followed by a 15-minute close back below 25,680, could signal a tactical short towards 25,659 → 25,600–25,549.

Gift Nifty Trends

The GIFT Nifty, formerly known as SGX Nifty, is a derivative contract linked to India's Nifty 50 index, traded on the NSE International Exchange (NSE IX) in Gandhinagar, India. It serves as an early indicator of potential Nifty 50 movement. On October 24, 2025, GIFT Nifty was trading in the red, down by -0.56% at 25865.00. According to current GIFT Nifty levels, Nifty might open around 50.70 points in the next trading session. A flat to positive opening is expected based on GIFT Nifty trading at 25,995, up by 36 points.

India-US Trade Deal

Recent reports suggest that India and the US are in advanced stages of discussions for a trade deal that could significantly impact the stock market. The proposed agreement could reduce tariffs on Indian imports to the US from 50% to 15-16%. Export-oriented stocks in the IT and textile sectors have already shown positive momentum following these reports. Sectors like pharmaceuticals, IT services, electronics, automobile components, and textiles could receive a direct boost from the elimination or reduction of tariffs.

However, it's important to note that the deal is not yet final, and market reactions are based on expectations, making volatility a factor to consider. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has emphasized that India will not rush into any agreement or negotiate under duress.

Gold Prices

Gold often acts as a portfolio diversifier, showing a unique correlation with the stock market. It tends to be correlated with the stock market during risk-on periods but decouples and becomes inversely correlated during periods of stress. Some experts say that gold and equity have an inverse relationship. This means, that when the gold price goes up, prices in the stock market will fall and vice versa. However, over the long run, gold and global equities have exhibited a null to low positive correlation.

Stocks to Watch

While specific stock recommendations vary across sources and should be considered with individual due diligence, several sectors appear promising based on the current market dynamics:

• IT Stocks: Companies like Tech Mahindra, with significant US revenue exposure, could benefit from eased trade restrictions.
• Textile Stocks: Gokaldas Exports and KPR Mills are worth monitoring due to their substantial revenue from the US market.
• Metal Stocks: The metal index rallied on optimism regarding a US-China trade deal. Hindalco (+4.11%) showed gains.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.