Bitcoin's recent price correction has sparked debate among analysts regarding the timeline for its recovery and potential new all-time highs. While bullish sentiment remains, projections now suggest a more gradual ascent, with estimates ranging from two to six months for Bitcoin to reach new peaks.
After hitting a record high of $126,200 on October 6th, Bitcoin experienced a roughly 20% drop, stabilizing around the $100,000 mark. This pullback is consistent with historical recovery patterns, according to network economist Timothy Peterson. He notes that similar drawdowns in 2024 saw recovery to new all-time highs within 2 to 6 months.
However, forecasts remain divided. Peterson's AI-created simulations indicate a less than 20% chance of Bitcoin reaching $140,000 by year-end, a 50% chance of exceeding $108,000, and a 30% chance of ending 2025 in the red. Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn has also adjusted expectations, lowering the firm's year-end target from $185,000 to $120,000, citing increased market maturity. Thorn suggests that Bitcoin is transitioning into a phase characterized by greater institutional participation, passive inflows, and reduced volatility, implying a slower, steadier pace of growth. Maintaining support at $100,000 is crucial to preserving the three-year bull trend, but future gains may be less dramatic as Bitcoin matures.
Other analysts offer mixed outlooks. Crypto trader Titan of Crypto anticipates a potential new all-time high near $130,000 by year-end but cautions that Bitcoin could plummet below $70,000 by Q1 2026, based on Wyckoff distribution analysis. JPMorgan analysts project Bitcoin could climb to $170,000 within the next six to twelve months.
Currently, Bitcoin is attempting to maintain its position above $99,500. Overcoming the $105,000 mark could signal a recovery towards the $113,000 range, with a breakthrough above $113,000 potentially indicating a renewed push for new highs before the year concludes. However, low trading volume casts doubt on the sustainability of these rebounds. Failure to hold $99,500 could lead to a further decline towards $93,600 or lower.
Technical indicators offer some hope. The Stochastic RSI is in oversold territory on both daily and weekly charts, levels that have historically preceded upward movements. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that Bitcoin is nearing oversold conditions, which could lead to a short-term bounce.
On-chain data reveals a surge in Bitcoin accumulation, with investors scooping up over 375,000 BTC in the past 30 days. The number of accumulation addresses, wallets with consistent inflows and no recent outflows, has reached record levels, indicating long-term confidence in Bitcoin. Bitcoin's MVRV ratio, which compares market value to realized value, is at its lowest since April 2025, suggesting that Bitcoin could be entering an early rebound phase.
Despite the recent correction and cautious sentiment, Bitcoin has managed to hold above the critical $100,000 level, even as the Fear & Greed Index remains in "extreme fear" territory. Historically, such levels have often been followed by strong rebounds. While a full recovery to new highs may take time, on-chain trends suggest that the worst may be over for Bitcoin.
