The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections have concluded, and the results are in, revealing a decisive victory for the NDA. While the opposition Mahagathbandhan, led by the Congress party, has alleged "vote chori" (vote theft), analysts suggest that a multitude of factors contributed to their defeat. One significant aspect was the apparent success of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's focus on women's empowerment and welfare initiatives.
The Congress party faced a major setback in these elections, managing to win only a handful of seats out of those contested. This performance is only marginally better than their worst showing in 2010. Despite efforts by Rahul Gandhi, including a 16-day "Voter Adhikar Yatra" aimed at addressing concerns about the Election Commission's Special Intensive Revision exercise, the party failed to resonate with the electorate. The "vote chori" narrative seemingly did not gain traction with voters.
Several factors contributed to the Congress's decline in Bihar. Internal contradictions within the opposition coalition, with the RJD, Congress, and Left parties contesting against each other in multiple seats, highlighted a lack of unity. The absence of a credible narrative to counter the incumbent government also played a role. The Mahagathbandhan was seemingly unable to tap into the key issues for Bihar's voters, such as livelihood stability, women's empowerment, and access to welfare programs.
Conversely, Nitish Kumar's emphasis on "Sushasan" (good governance) and welfare programs, particularly those aimed at women, appears to have resonated strongly with voters. Initiatives such as the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana, which provides financial assistance to women entrepreneurs, created a broad base of female beneficiaries. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also reinforced this narrative during the campaign, emphasizing the commitment to "service, prosperity, and dignity" for women in Bihar.
Women voters played a crucial role in these elections, with turnout surpassing that of men in many districts. The increased participation of women is believed to have significantly influenced the mandate in favor of the NDA, driven by the appeal of welfare schemes and a perception of pro-incumbency. This shift in social dynamics, from the opposition's anticipated consolidation of Muslim votes to Nitish Kumar's "Mahila factor," proved decisive.
Furthermore, the NDA successfully reminded voters of the "jungle raj" era under the RJD, contrasting it with promises of development, jobs for youth, pensions for the elderly, and financial assistance to women. This narrative appears to have found resonance with the electorate.
In addition to Nitish Kumar's focus on women, Chirag Paswan emerged as a significant gainer in this election. His party secured a substantial number of seats, demonstrating his personal appeal among Dalits and young Biharis. By strategically distancing himself from the NDA and then returning as a strengthened ally, he positioned himself as a rising force with independent bargaining power.
Overall, the Bihar election results indicate that the NDA's social engineering, welfare initiatives, and focus on women's empowerment proved successful in overshadowing the opposition's "vote chori" campaign. The Congress party's failure to connect with voters and internal divisions within the Mahagathbandhan further contributed to their defeat. The results are expected to have implications for the broader opposition I.N.D.I.A. bloc, particularly given existing fragmentation among its constituent parties.
