Navigating the week ahead, the Indian stock market faces a confluence of domestic and international factors that could trigger significant movements. Investors will be closely watching for key data releases and developments that could shape market sentiment. Here are five top triggers to watch out for this week:
1. Q2 GDP Data Release:
The National Statistics Office (NSO) is scheduled to release the official GDP growth figures for the second quarter (July to September) of the financial year 2025-26 on November 28. Market participants anticipate a moderation in growth compared to the stellar 7.8% expansion in the first quarter. Most analysts estimate GDP growth to be in the range of 7% to 7.5%. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had earlier estimated GDP growth for Q2 at 7.5% and 6.8% for the full fiscal year 2025-26. These figures will be crucial as they will be among the last sets of data released before the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the RBI from December 3 to 5. Better-than-expected GDP numbers could fuel positive market sentiment, while disappointing figures may trigger a correction.
2. Progress on India-US Trade Deal:
Negotiations for the first phase of the India-US bilateral trade agreement (BTA) are reportedly nearing closure. The initial phase aims to address the 50% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on certain Indian goods. India's Commerce and Industry Minister, Piyush Goyal, indicated that a trade agreement with the United States would be announced once the terms are "fair, equitable, and balanced". A breakthrough in trade talks could significantly boost market sentiment, particularly for export-oriented sectors. The U.S. remains India's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at USD 131.84 billion in 2024-25.
3. Core Sector Growth Data:
October's core sector growth data, which reflects infrastructure output, is expected to be released this week. In the previous month, core sector growth was subdued at 3.0%. A rebound in this figure is highly anticipated as it is essential for sustaining higher levels of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and overall GDP growth. Strong core sector performance can signal robust economic activity and positively influence investor confidence.
4. Global Cues and US Fed Minutes:
Global economic trends, particularly developments in the United States, will likely impact the Indian stock market. The US Federal Reserve is expected to release the minutes from its recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. These minutes will provide insights into the Fed's assessment of the U.S. economy and the potential trajectory of interest rates. Any indication of a more cautious or hawkish stance by the Fed could trigger volatility in global markets, including India.
5. IPO Market Activity:
The primary market will also be in focus as initial public offerings (IPOs) continue to draw investor attention. While some IPOs are closing, new offerings may open, influencing market liquidity and sentiment. The performance of newly listed companies and the subscription levels of ongoing IPOs will be closely monitored for indications of investor appetite and overall market health.
Overall, the Indian stock market is expected to be influenced by a mix of domestic economic data, progress in international trade relations, and global monetary policy cues this week. Investors should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies based on these key triggers.
