The Indian stock market is expected to open lower today, December 4, 2025, tracking mixed cues from global markets and ahead of Russian President Vladimir Putin's two-day state visit to India.

Market Outlook:

• Global Cues: Asian markets are trading mixed, while the US stock market closed higher overnight amid rising expectations of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next week.
• GIFT Nifty: The GIFT Nifty is trading around 26,078, indicating a weak start for the Indian benchmark index.
• Technical Analysis: According to market analysts, the 86,000 – 86,200 region acts as the next major resistance for Sensex, and a breakout above this zone may lead to fresh record highs. Major support is seen near 85,100 – 85,000. Nifty has major resistance at 26325 while 25840 offers a crucial support.
• Derivatives Data: Derivatives data reflects a cautious tone, with call writers aggressively adding exposure at near and at-the-money strikes. The 26,000 strike is established as a heavy resistance ceiling.

Key Factors to Watch:

• Vladimir Putin's India Visit: Investors will be closely watching the outcomes of the bilateral talks between Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with a particular focus on any significant agreements reached on trade and defense. Discussions are anticipated regarding the purchase of Sukhoi-57 stealth fighter jets and advanced S-500 air defense systems.
• India-Russia Relations: Putin's visit aims to reaffirm New Delhi–Moscow relations. A firmer India–Russia alignment may prompt a response from the US, potentially resulting in geopolitical noise, currency fluctuations, and heightened risk premiums across emerging markets.
• Defense Stocks: Defence stocks in India will be in focus during Vladimir Putin's India visit. HAL is expected to be a key player due to its specialization in the production and upkeep of aircraft.
• RBI Monetary Policy Cues: Market participants will also be closely monitoring the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy cues.
• Rupee Movement: The rupee breached the 90-per-dollar mark, sliding to a fresh low against the US dollar. The rupee has fallen, putting it on track for its steepest annual decline since 2022. A depreciating rupee will act as a shock absorber to Indian exports to high tariff countries like the United States.

Market Sentiment:

Market sentiment is cautious amid persistent foreign fund outflows and profit-taking by investors. The Indian stock market closed in the red for the fourth straight session on Wednesday. The Nifty 50 index closed below 26,000 level.

Expert Views:

• Analysts expect the market to trade in a range-bound manner, tracking currency trends, RBI monetary policy cues, and developments on the trade negotiation front.
• Market experts suggest that Nifty has immediate support in the range of 25,800 to 25,850 while resistance is at 26,100, followed by 26,150.

Trading Strategy:

Given the cautious market sentiment and mixed global cues, investors are advised to remain vigilant and closely monitor developments related to Putin's visit and global market trends. A decisive move above resistance levels will be essential to revive bullish momentum.