Here's a news article summarizing the key overnight changes affecting the Indian stock market:
Indian Stock Market Navigates Global and Domestic Cues
The Indian stock market is bracing for a potentially volatile session, influenced by a combination of overnight global cues and domestic factors. Several key elements have shifted, demanding attention from investors as they strategize for the day ahead. These include signals from GIFT Nifty, US jobs data, and fluctuations in crude oil prices.
GIFT Nifty Signals Muted Start
GIFT Nifty, a derivative contract that represents India's Nifty 50 index and trades on the GIFT City exchange in Gujarat, serves as an early indicator of market sentiment. It provides insights into how the Indian stock market might open by reflecting global reactions to international developments before domestic exchanges open. Trading near 26,085, GIFT Nifty is down approximately 5.5 points from the previous Nifty futures close, suggesting a possibly muted start for Indian markets. Positive movement in GIFT Nifty often precedes higher openings for domestic indices, while negative movements predict downward pressure. By tracking GIFT Nifty, traders gain a pre-market understanding of potential market movements, aiding in informed decision-making.
US Jobs Data Impacts Rate Cut Expectations
The unexpectedly strong US jobs data has significantly influenced market sentiment. The robust data has driven 10-year Treasury yields to a 14-month high, signaling fewer US rate cuts this year. This shift has reduced the attractiveness of Indian markets for foreign investors, leading to equity sell-offs. In early January, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew a substantial amount of rupees, indicating a nervous market mood. The US economic data impacts the Indian market by influencing global trade, capital flows, and investor risk appetite. Uncertainty in the US economy can trigger a "risk-off" sentiment, prompting investors to move towards safer assets and away from equities, which can increase volatility in Indian markets.
Crude Oil Price Volatility
Crude oil prices continue to be a critical factor for the Indian stock market, especially since India imports a significant portion of its crude oil needs. Brent crude was at $60.11/barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at $56.25/barrel. Rising crude oil prices often lead to higher production costs for industries reliant on petroleum products, impacting their profit margins and potentially resulting in lower stock prices. Conversely, lower oil prices can reduce costs for businesses and improve profits. For an oil-importing country like India, lower oil prices ease inflation and reduce the current account deficit, which can positively affect the stock market. Sectors such as aviation, paints, chemicals, and FMCG may experience margin expansion due to reduced raw material and logistics costs, while upstream oil producers may face earnings pressure.
FII Activity and Domestic Market Performance
On December 15, 2025, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 1,468.32 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 1,792.25 crore. The benchmark equity indices closed marginally lower on the same day, with the Sensex slumping by 54 points (0.06%) to close at 85,213.36 and the Nifty 50 moving down by 20 points (0.08%) to settle at 26,027.30.
Navigating Market Ahead
Given the complex interplay of these factors, investors should remain vigilant and strategically position themselves. Monitoring GIFT Nifty for pre-market cues, understanding the implications of US economic data on rate cut expectations, and tracking crude oil price movements are crucial for making informed decisions.
