The Indian stock market is expected to open with muted volatility today, December 5, 2025, as investors await the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision.

Global and Domestic Cues:

• Global Market Trends: Mixed global cues are setting the stage for a tepid start. Asia-Pacific markets opened lower, with Australia's ASX/S&P 200 and Japan's Nikkei 225 index experiencing losses.
• GIFT Nifty: Trends on the GIFT Nifty suggest a muted opening for the Indian benchmark index, trading around the 26,181 level, a discount from Nifty futures' previous close.
• RBI Policy Decision: The RBI's repo rate decision is a key focus, with the MPC expected to maintain the rate at 5.50%. The decision is expected against the backdrop of India's strong GDP growth of 8% in the September 2025 quarter and a record low retail inflation of 0.25%.
• Rupee Movement: The rupee has continued its downward trend, hitting a fresh all-time low of Rs 90.42 per dollar, influenced by persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows and a widening trade deficit.

Market Performance Yesterday:

On December 4, the Indian stock market reversed its four-session losing streak, closing higher, with the Nifty 50 surpassing 26,000. The Sensex gained 158.51 points (0.19%) to close at 85,265.32, while the Nifty 50 settled 47.75 points (0.18%) higher at 26,033.75.

Expert Analysis and Predictions:

• Sensex: Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, noted profit booking at higher levels but sees the Sensex closing above 85,000 as a positive sign. He anticipates a pullback in the near future, with 85,000 and 84,800 acting as key support zones, and 85,500-85,650 as crucial resistance.
• Nifty 50: Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, indicated that the Nifty is trading within a 25,900–26,200 consolidation zone. Resistance is at 26,100–26,300, and a breakout above this range could lead to 26,500. Key support levels remain at 25,900 and 25,800.
• Market Sentiment: Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, stated that markets closed flat due to mixed global cues and caution ahead of the RBI policy. He added that early gains were limited by a record-low rupee and persistent FII outflows.

Trading Range and Key Levels:

Derivatives data reveals aggressive call writing at the 26,100 strike and strong put open interest (OI) at 26,000, suggesting a tight trading range in the near term. A sustained close above 26,300 is crucial to re-establish bullish momentum. Experts suggest the Nifty may consolidate within 25,900 to 26,200 in the near term.

Stocks to Watch:

Rate-sensitive sectors, including banks, financial services, automobiles, and real estate, are expected to be active as the RBI's MPC announces its policy decision.

FII/DII Activity:

Recent data indicates sustained FII outflows and strong Domestic Institutional Investor (DII) buying, which is likely to keep the market range-bound with stock-specific action.

Overall:

Market participants anticipate volatility as they await the RBI's policy announcement. The focus will be on the RBI's commentary, especially concerning rate-sensitive banks. Investors will also be closely monitoring the rupee's movement and global cues for further direction.