Bitcoin's recent price dip has sparked concerns about a potential bear market, but analysts suggest that a further decline to the $70,000 level could actually serve as a healthy reset of the market cycle, rather than a confirmation of a prolonged downturn.
Analyst Perspectives
Crypto analyst James Check, for example, has indicated that Bitcoin may face additional downside pressure as remaining leverage in the market could trigger another flush. Check described the recent market meltdown as a "2-sigma long liquidation event" that eliminated overleveraged traders. A 2-sigma event signifies a price movement of two standard deviations from the mean, representing a statistically significant swing. While most leverage has been cleared, Check cautioned that the market might detect final holdouts, adding that he "wouldn't be too surprised if we wick into the $70k-$80k zone to flush the final leverage pockets".
According to Cointelegraph, crypto trader Jackis views the current market movement as a macroeconomic range for 2025, asserting that even a drop to $70,000 would not mirror previous bear markets. Unlike the conditions of 2022 or early 2024, the present drawdown lacks systemic, macro-driven risk-off pressure, instead demonstrating a supply rotation from early holders to institutional participants.
Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, pointed to Bitcoin's historical behavior after oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings below 30. Data suggests that Bitcoin tends to follow a well-defined recovery path after such conditions, he noted. Although short-term volatility is likely, Bittel argued that bases usually take time to form and are accompanied by choppy price action before a sustained uptrend resumes.
Market Sentiment and Potential Bottom
Despite the recent sell-off, markets are showing tentative signs of stabilization. SignalPlus' Head of Insights, Augustine Fan, stated that markets are currently oversold from both sentiment and technical perspectives. Absent new external factors, prices have likely found local lows, he added. Fan expects prices to range between $82,000 and $92,000, with significant price support around $78,000.
Analysts at CryptoQuant identified a local bottom that could lead to a sustained rebound. However, the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC whale cohort continues to sell, preventing full confirmation of a trend reversal. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin exchange inflows hit 9,000 BTC on Nov. 21, marking the highest single-day inflow since late 2024. The firm noted that 45% of total inflows came from deposits of 100 BTC or more, reaching nearly 7,000 BTC in a single day.
Research firm 10x Research believes the "tactical, oversold rebound" is still in progress, with $92,000 and $101,000 as key resistance levels. BitMine chairman Tom Lee has adjusted his outlook, suggesting that a new all-time high by year-end is now only a possibility. Whale behavior remains a deciding factor; continued large BTC deposits could stall Bitcoin's recovery, potentially leading to a retest of the low $80,000 or high $70,000 region.
