Recent analysis from VanEck suggests that the recent capitulation of Bitcoin miners could be a signal that the bottom of the current market cycle is approaching. This conclusion is based on the observation of a recent decline in Bitcoin's hashrate and its historical correlation with future price movements.
VanEck analysts Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush noted in a report on Monday that the Bitcoin network's hashrate fell 4% month-over-month as of December 15, 2025. The analysts believe this decline could be a positive sign for Bitcoin's price in the coming months, as miner capitulation has historically been a contrarian bullish indicator. Miner capitulation refers to a phase where miners, facing decreased profitability, are forced to shut down their operations, leading to a drop in the network's hashrate.
Sigel and Bush pointed out that since 2014, periods of hashrate compression have often preceded positive returns for Bitcoin. Specifically, they found that when the network's hashrate had declined over the prior 30 days, Bitcoin's 90-day forward returns have been positive 65% of the time. This is compared to a 54% chance of positive returns when the hashrate increased over the same period. Looking further ahead, negative 90-day hashrate growth was followed by positive 180-day Bitcoin returns 77% of the time, with an average gain of 72%. This outperformed the 61% positive returns when hashrate increased over the same period.
The recent drop in hashrate, the sharpest since April 2024, was likely driven by the shutdown of approximately 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity in China. VanEck analysts believe much of that power could shift to accommodate rising AI demand, a trend the duo estimated could erase 10% of the Bitcoin hashrate.
The analysts also highlighted the challenging conditions faced by Bitcoin miners, noting that the breakeven electricity price for a 2022-era Bitmain S19 XP miner, a popular Bitcoin mining rig, has fallen nearly 36% from $0.12 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in December 2024 to $0.077/kWh as of mid-December 2025. This decrease highlights the increased pressure on miners' profitability.
Despite a nearly 30% drop from its all-time high of $126,080 in October, Bitcoin is currently trading around $88,400. VanEck's analysis suggests that rising prices, influenced by miner capitulation, could widen profitability margins for some miners or even bring previously unprofitable miners back online.
It is important to note that this analysis is based on historical trends and market observations. The cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile and subject to various factors that can influence price movements. This includes evolving regulatory landscapes, technological advancements, and broader macroeconomic conditions. While the VanEck report presents a potentially bullish outlook based on miner capitulation, it should not be taken as definitive investment advice.
