As of December 26, 2025, fuel prices across various cities are showing slight variations, reflecting the combined influence of international crude oil prices, domestic tax structures, and currency exchange rates.
Global Market Overview
The global oil market is currently influenced by a mix of factors, including geopolitical tensions and supply dynamics. Stricter US sanctions on Venezuela and intensified Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have raised concerns about potential supply disruptions. Despite these concerns, there are also indications of a potential global oversupply due to increased production from non-OPEC countries like the US.
United States
Gasoline prices in the US have fallen to $1.75 per gallon as of December 26, 2025, a slight decrease of 0.02% from the previous day. This reflects a broader trend where gasoline prices have fallen 5.81% over the past month and 10.22% compared to the same time last year. Diesel prices are also showing a downward trend, with the US retail diesel price at $3.544 per gallon, down from $3.607 last week.
India
In India, petrol prices remain relatively stable, with average prices ranging from Rs. 94.25 to Rs. 107.5 per liter across different cities. As of today, Delhi has one of the lowest petrol prices at Rs. 96.72 per liter, while Kolkata has a higher rate of Rs. 106.03 per liter. Mumbai's petrol price stands at Rs. 106.3 per liter, and Chennai's is Rs. 102.74 per liter. These prices highlight regional differences in taxation and distribution costs.
Factors Influencing Fuel Prices
Several factors influence the price consumers pay at the pump: * Crude Oil Prices: The global price of crude oil is a primary driver, influenced by supply and demand dynamics and oil refinery production capacity. * Exchange Rates: As refined fuel is sold in US dollars per metric tonne, the pound to dollar exchange rate impacts prices. * Government Taxes: Fuel duty and VAT significantly contribute to the retail price. * Retailer Margins: The profit margins taken by fuel retailers also play a role.
Regional Price Variations
Fuel prices vary significantly across different regions due to factors such as local taxes, transportation costs, and market conditions.
Analyst Outlook
Analysts expect gasoline to trade at $1.72 USD/GAL by the end of this quarter and $1.88 in 12 months. However, these are estimates and subject to change based on evolving market dynamics.
Mixed movements expected
In the Philippines, mixed movements in fuel prices are expected before the New Year of 2026. Gasoline prices may decrease by P0.50, while diesel prices are expected to remain unchanged. Kerosene prices, on the other hand, may see a slight increase of P0.10.
Conclusion
Fuel prices are subject to a complex interplay of global and local factors. While some regions are experiencing price decreases due to oversupply and softer demand, geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions could lead to potential price spikes in the near future. Monitoring these factors is crucial for understanding and anticipating fluctuations in fuel prices.
