Bitfinex Whales Go Long BTC for 2026: 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week
Large-scale Bitcoin investors, often referred to as "whales," are making significant moves on the Bitfinex exchange, signaling potential shifts in the cryptocurrency market. As their leveraged Bitcoin "long" positions surge to levels unseen since March 2024, here are five key things to know about Bitcoin this week:
1. Whale Accumulation Amid Market Cool-Off: Despite a cooling broader market and a recent 40% correction in November 2025, Bitfinex whales have been aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, increasing their long exposure by 36% over the last three months. This counter-cyclical buying strategy, acquiring Bitcoin during price dips, suggests a strong conviction among these large investors.
2. A Transfer of Bitcoin to Strong Hands: Industry experts, such as Samson Mow, view this accumulation as a transfer of Bitcoin from "paper hands" (impatient sellers) to "conviction buyers" who are willing to withstand short-term volatility. This suggests a consolidation of Bitcoin holdings among those with a long-term outlook.
3. Reduced Market Noise and Potential for Price Movement: The whale activity is occurring while overall open interest in derivatives is falling, indicating reduced retail participation. This means that the large leveraged positions held by these whales carry more weight in determining Bitcoin's next major price move.
4. 2026 Peak Price Prediction: A "Bitfinex Alpha" report projects that Bitcoin could peak at $290,000 in early 2026 if historical patterns from the 2017 bull run repeat. This projection considers historical price patterns during bull cycles, increasing institutional adoption, and key technical indicators. However, more conservative estimates, based on diminished returns as Bitcoin matures, suggest a peak in the $160,000 to $200,000 range by mid-2025.
5. Key Levels to Watch: On-chain analyst James Van Straten suggests that the real signal to watch is not the high volume of longs, but the moment those positions begin to reverse. Historically, a sudden reduction in these whale positions has been a more reliable indicator of a changing market regime than the accumulation phase itself. If Bitcoin fails to find a way up in the near future, 70K to 74K could be the next big support level.
The surge in long positions on Bitfinex indicates a period of intense accumulation by sophisticated players who anticipate higher prices. However, analysts caution that this isn't necessarily a straightforward "buy" signal for the immediate future. The cryptocurrency market in late 2025 remains a complex environment, with bullish whale activity clashing with underlying market vulnerabilities. Investors should remain vigilant about the risks of overleveraged positions, particularly in a market where liquidity and sentiment can change rapidly.
