India's backyard is experiencing significant upheaval, with Nepal grappling with the aftermath of Gen-Z led protests and Pakistan facing a complex interplay of civilian and military power. These developments have implications for regional stability and India's strategic interests.
In Nepal, simmering discontent among the youth has boiled over, leading to significant political change. Frustration with corruption, unemployment, and a perceived lack of responsiveness from the political elite fueled widespread protests. The immediate trigger was the government's decision to ban multiple social media channels. The protests, largely driven by Gen-Z, resulted in the resignation of Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli. Following Oli's resignation, Sushila Karki, former Supreme Court Chief Justice, was appointed as interim Prime Minister. Karki is the first woman to hold the position. She dissolved the lower chamber of parliament and called for fresh elections in March 2026.
The rapid collapse of the government underscores the power of social media and the determination of Nepali youth to hold their leaders accountable. The events in Nepal mirror similar movements in other South Asian countries, where young people are using social media to mobilize and demand change. How the Nepali youth movement organizes politically will be critical. Despite the recent political volatility, Nepal's politics have been relatively stable since the constitutional crisis in 2021, with most parties committed to democratic processes. Elections were held in November 2022 to replace the national legislature and provincial assemblies. The country remains divided between communist parties and the Nepali Congress, which have different views on domestic politics, foreign affairs, and economic policy.
Meanwhile, Pakistan continues to navigate a turbulent political landscape marked by a history of military influence, corruption, and economic challenges. The country has spent significant periods under military rule, and even during civilian governments, the military maintains considerable influence, particularly on foreign and security policy. Pakistan faces major domestic policy challenges, including political unrest and terrorist attacks. Separatist and extremist movements exacerbate Pakistan's struggle to achieve political stability. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, is the most prominent.
Pakistan's political sphere is characterized by a lack of transparency and corruption. Restrictions have been imposed on civil society organizations. Pakistan ranked 133rd out of 180 countries in Transparency International's 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index. The country also faces a protracted economic and financial crisis, with high levels of government debt, inflation, and poverty. Pakistan has been on the brink of default several times.
In February 2024, the Pakistan Movement for Justice (PTI) was barred from the polls. The Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) won the most seats and now forms the largest group in parliament. Freedom of religion is restricted, and religious minorities face discrimination. Pakistan's internal security is threatened by terrorism, extremism, and separatist movements. The security situation is fragile, and anti-terrorism laws have been tightened.
The political and economic crises in Pakistan deepened in 2023. The government clamped down on the media, NGOs, and political opposition. Authorities used counterterrorism and sedition laws to intimidate critics. Elections scheduled for November were delayed. Violence against religious minorities intensified, and attacks by Islamist militants killed dozens. Pakistan faces significant economic challenges, with poverty, inflation, and unemployment soaring. The country is also vulnerable to climate change.
