In the wake of the United States' capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, a prominent India-based think tank, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), has asserted that this event is unlikely to significantly impact India's economy or energy security. The GTRI highlighted that while India was once a major importer of Venezuelan crude oil, particularly in the 2000s and 2010s, the bilateral engagement has substantially weakened since 2019 due to US sanctions. These sanctions forced India to drastically reduce its oil imports and scale back commercial activities to avoid facing secondary sanctions.
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has expressed "deep concern" regarding the recent developments in Venezuela and stated they are closely monitoring the situation. The MEA has also reaffirmed its support for the well-being and safety of the Venezuelan people and called for a peaceful resolution through dialogue to ensure regional peace and stability.
In 2024-25, India's total imports from Venezuela amounted to just $364.5 million, with crude oil accounting for $255.3 million of that figure. This represents a significant 81.3% drop from the $1.4 billion in crude oil imports in 2023-24. Exports from India to Venezuela were also modest, standing at $95.3 million, primarily consisting of pharmaceuticals valued at $41.4 million.
According to OPEC data, Venezuela accounts for approximately 3.5% of OPEC's total oil exports and about 1% of global oil supplies. However, these numbers are relatively low due to the US sanctions imposed on Venezuela. Most of Venezuela's oil supply is currently directed to China.
Ajay Srivastava, the founder of GTRI and former Director General of Foreign Trade for the Indian government, stated that the current situation in Venezuela is not expected to have any meaningful impact on India's economy or energy security, citing low trade volumes, existing sanctions, and the geographical distance between the two countries.
The US military operation in Venezuela, which led to the capture of President Maduro and his wife, has raised concerns about international law and the sovereignty of nations. The US has accused Maduro of being involved in drug trafficking, which he has denied. The US has also stated its intention to take control of Venezuela's massive oil reserves and involve American companies in rebuilding the country's oil industry.
India's complex refineries, such as the Jamnagar facility, are specifically designed to process Venezuela's dense, heavy crude oil. A complete blockade would force Indian refiners to seek more expensive alternatives from the Middle East. However, India has strategically shifted towards discounted Russian crude, which accounted for nearly 50% of its total oil imports by late 2025, providing a substantial cushion against potential shocks from the Venezuelan crisis.
The Indian embassy in Caracas is in contact with the Indian community in Venezuela and is providing all possible assistance. There are approximately 50 non-resident Indians and 30 people of Indian origin in Venezuela. The MEA has also issued an advisory strongly advising Indian nationals to avoid all non-essential travel to Venezuela.
