On January 12, 2026, fuel prices are showing mixed movements, influenced by a combination of geopolitical tensions, supply concerns, and policy decisions.

Global Market Overview

Globally, gasoline prices have seen an increase, reaching $1.78 USD/Gal, a 0.26% rise from the previous day. Despite this recent uptick, gasoline prices are still 15.32% lower than a year ago. Market analysts predict gasoline will trade at $1.81 USD/GAL by the end of the quarter and $1.95 in 12 months. In contrast, fuel prices in Taiwan are dropping slightly for the second consecutive week, with gasoline prices falling to NT$26.4, NT$27.9 and NT$29.9 per liter for 92, 95 and 98-octane unleaded gasoline respectively. Premium diesel is also decreasing to NT$24.8 per liter at CPC stations and NT$24.6 at Formosa pumps.

Several factors are contributing to the fluctuating prices. Geopolitical tensions, including the potential halting of Iranian oil exports due to civil unrest and the escalating Russia-Ukraine war, are creating uncertainty. The market is also responding to potential increases in Venezuelan oil production following recent political changes, Saudi Arabia's price cuts for Asian shipments, and the possibility of the U.S. imposing tariffs on countries purchasing Russian crude oil.

Regional Updates

• India: Petrol rates in India are varied, ranging from Rs. 94.25 to Rs. 107.5 per liter depending on the city. In Delhi, petrol costs Rs. 96.72 per liter, while in Kolkata, the price is Rs. 106.03 per liter. Mumbai's petrol prices are at Rs. 106.31 per liter, and Chennai's rates are Rs. 102.74 per liter.
• Philippines: Oil companies are set to raise pump prices, with gasoline increasing by P0.30 per liter and diesel by P0.20 per liter. Kerosene prices will also rise by P0.30 per liter. For the period of January 6-12, 2026, pump prices in the National Capital Region averaged P51.10 per liter for RON 91 gasoline, P55.60 for diesel, and P78.57 for kerosene.
• Zambia: The Energy Regulation Board (ERB) has decreased pump prices for diesel and kerosene to K25.11 per liter and K23.88 per liter, respectively. The price of petrol will remain at K29.92 per liter.

Factors Influencing Price Adjustments

Several factors are influencing these price adjustments:

• Geopolitical Issues: Tensions in Iran, Ukraine, and Venezuela are causing concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply, pushing prices higher.
• Crude Oil Oversupply: Despite geopolitical risks, concerns about a crude oil oversupply are contributing to potential price rollbacks. Increased Venezuelan crude output is reinforcing expectations of ample global supply amidst weak demand.
• OPEC+ Policies: Traders are closely monitoring OPEC+ policy signals, which can significantly impact the market.
• Currency Exchange Rates: Fluctuations in currency exchange rates also play a role. For example, the Zambian Kwacha's appreciation against the US dollar has contributed to lower fuel prices in Zambia.

Predictions and Warnings

While some sources predict potential rollbacks due to oversupply, oil companies caution that worsening geopolitical developments could quickly reverse this trend. The situation remains fluid, and consumers are advised to stay informed about local and global factors impacting fuel prices.