Gold and silver prices have surged to fresh record highs, driven by heightened safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions and a weaker U.S. dollar. On Monday, gold prices soared past $4,600 per ounce internationally for the first time, while silver also reached a record high.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), silver March futures surged to a new lifetime high of ₹2,63,996 per kg, registering a sharp gain of over ₹10,314, or 4%. Meanwhile, gold February futures touched a new peak of ₹1,41,250 per 10 grams, with intraday gains of nearly ₹2,000, or 1.4%.
Several factors are contributing to the surge in precious metals. Rising geopolitical risks, ranging from unrest in Iran to escalating global trade tensions, are prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets. A bill passed by the US administration to impose 500% tariffs on BRICS nations for importing Russian oil has further unsettled markets. Uncertainty in financial markets is being fueled by the rising aggression from the US President, which is prompting investors to flock to safe-haven assets like gold and silver.
Expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are also supporting gold prices. Disappointing U.S. jobs data has strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. Market speculation currently reflects traders' expectations of at least two rate cuts in 2026. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and tend to weaken the U.S. dollar.
For silver, industrial demand remains a key driver. Silver is a core beneficiary of the global green transition, with essential roles in solar power, electrification, and emerging AI-linked hardware. Years of underinvestment in mining have constrained silver supply growth, while demand from clean energy, electronics, and advanced manufacturing continues to rise.
Analysts expect gold and silver prices to continue to rise, but there could be intermittent profit booking as they are at record levels. Geopolitical uncertainty and structural demand, especially from Asia, look like they will keep gold prices higher. Industrial demand, especially from green technologies, underpins long-term fundamentals in silver's high pricing.
Some analysts recommend that investors should wait for a small correction of 3-5% to buy gold for the long term. For intraday traders, the MCX gold February futures may remain elevated amid a rise in geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.
Looking ahead, analyst expectations for 2026 have shifted decisively higher, with most major institutions now forecasting gold between $4,000 and $5,300 per ounce. J.P. Morgan forecasts prices to average $5,055/oz by the final quarter of 2026. UBS forecasts silver trading around USD 85 per ounce in the short term before settling near USD 70 per ounce by the end of 2026. However, UBS also notes that silver prices could potentially reach triple-digit levels under certain conditions. GoldSilver's Lead Analyst Alan Hibbard expects silver to trade above $100 in 2026 as supply deficits deepen and industrial demand accelerates.
