Bitcoin spot traders are losing ground as bears staunchly defend the $98,000 mark, a level that has proven to be a significant resistance point in recent trading sessions. This rejection near $98,000 occurred as spot traders seemed to run out of steam, with some short-term investors opting to take profits.
After showing intermittent strength early in the year, Bitcoin has settled into a consolidation phase, largely fluctuating between the high $80,000s and mid $90,000s. This behavior indicates the market is stabilizing after a period of volatility, and finding a more mature price discovery phase.
Several factors contribute to the current market dynamics. Macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly regarding US inflation data and central bank signaling around interest rates, is playing a significant role. While easing monetary policy typically supports assets like Bitcoin, the market is sensitive to the pace and certainty of such easing.
The recent stall in progress on the CLARITY Act in the Senate has also weighed on investor sentiment. The Senate Banking Committee's decision to pause the bill's markup, following Coinbase's withdrawal of support due to concerns about stablecoin rewards, has raised concerns about future US regulations.
Despite these headwinds, there are positive catalysts that could boost Bitcoin's performance. Donald Trump's decision not to bomb Iran has led to a pullback in crude oil prices, which is beneficial for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies because it helps contain inflation. Data indicates that the Consumer Price Index remained stable at 2.7% in December, while the core CPI fell slightly to 2.6%.
Furthermore, data reveals continuous accumulation of Bitcoin ETFs by American investors. Daily inflows have risen, bringing the weekly increase to $1.8 billion and the cumulative total net inflows to $58.2 billion. Michael Saylor's Strategy has also continued buying Bitcoin, signaling increasing demand.
Technical analysis provides a mixed outlook. Bitcoin remains in a short-term rising trend channel, indicating positive development. However, it has broken the floor of the long-term rising trend channel, suggesting a potentially weaker rising rate. Bitcoin's price is nearing resistance at 107,000 points, which may trigger a negative reaction.
Predictions for the near future vary. One analysis suggests Bitcoin could trade between $96,405 and $96,792 this week, potentially reaching $96,792 by January 18, 2026. Another forecasts Bitcoin's value to increase by 0.69% to $97,554.42 by January 18, 2026. However, some analysts predict a potential decline to as low as $68,000.
Overall, the Bitcoin market currently reflects a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces. Spot traders are facing resistance at the $98,000 level, while macroeconomic factors and regulatory concerns add to the uncertainty. However, increasing ETF inflows, positive technical indicators, and potential catalysts like easing inflation suggest that Bitcoin could still rebound in the near term.
