Recent research suggests that the current Bitcoin (BTC) market dynamics, characterized by "diamond hand" holders, do not mirror the selling patterns observed during the 2017 and 2021 crypto rallies. This challenges assumptions about an impending market crash based on historical data.
Long-Term Holders Remain Steadfast
A key factor differentiating the current market from previous cycles is the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders. CryptoQuant community author, Crypto SunMoon, observed on February 1, 2025, that long-term holders, defined as on-chain accounts that purchased BTC at least seven years ago, are currently not sending their holdings to exchanges. This contrasts with the 2017-2021 period, where long-term holders began selling off their assets right before the bullish phase concluded. As of early 2025, data indicates that we are not yet at a similar stage. Substantial inflows to centralized exchanges driven by long-term holders were last seen in late Q1 2024, but these were less significant than those preceding the November 2021 all-time high.
The conviction of long-term holders is further underscored by data showing that a significant portion of Bitcoin's supply remains dormant for extended periods. As of late August 2024, approximately 30.7% of the Bitcoin supply had not been moved for over five years, reflecting strong holding convictions among these investors. These "diamond hands" have weathered various market storms, including the COVID-19 crash, the 2021 bull market, and the 2022 bear market.
Market Analysis and Future Predictions
Despite the resilience of long-term holders, some analysts suggest caution. Veteran technician Quantum Ascend noted on June 24, 2025, that Bitcoin's price movements are mirroring the 2021-2024 arc, with a similar pattern of "run-up, one high, back down, second high," followed by an ABC corrective sequence. Ascend anticipates a relief rally toward the $107,000–$108,000 range before a final downward leg potentially drives the price to between $92,000 and $96,500.
Alternative Scenarios and Market Factors
While historical patterns offer insights, it's crucial to recognize that each market cycle is unique. Lark Davis noted that while a repeat of the 2021 cycle is possible, the current cycle might align more closely with pre-2021 patterns due to the distortions caused by massive money printing during that period. This suggests that 2025 could resemble 2017 or even evolve differently than anticipated.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $89,945. Recent data shows that inflows of stablecoins to exchanges look optimistic for Bitcoin bulls. The percentage of owners of altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) and Litecoin (LTC) holding their assets for at least 12 months is over 70%, reflecting confidence in the crypto rally.
