The political landscape of Maharashtra is once again buzzing with speculation, this time focusing on whether Raj Thackeray, chief of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), might be considering a shift in alliances for the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections. A cryptic post on X (formerly Twitter) has ignited the rumors, prompting political analysts and observers to ponder if Thackeray is contemplating abandoning his cousin, Uddhav Thackeray, and the Shiv Sena (UBT) to potentially align with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena.
The BMC elections are crucial, given that it is the country's richest civic corporation. In the recent BMC elections, the BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde) alliance emerged victorious, securing 118 seats and surpassing the majority mark of 114. Meanwhile, the Shiv Sena (UBT) secured 65 seats, and the MNS won six. The alliance between Uddhav and Raj Thackeray for these polls failed to outmaneuver the BJP-Shinde Sena alliance.
Several factors contribute to the current speculation. Firstly, the MNS has recently extended support to Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena in Kalyan-Dombivli Municipal Corporation (KDMC) elections. In the 122-member KDMC, the BJP won 50 seats, while the Shinde Sena secured 53 and the MNS won five. This alliance was formed to prevent the BJP from securing the mayor's post. Shrikant Shinde, Sena MP and son of Eknath Shinde, confirmed the alliance with Raj Thackeray's party, bringing their combined strength to 58. He also hinted that corporators from the Uddhav Thackeray faction might join the alliance.
Secondly, there are reports suggesting that the MNS leadership believes it did not significantly benefit from its alliance with Uddhav Thackeray's Sena (UBT) in the BMC elections. Some analysts suggest that Raj Thackeray's past rhetoric against North Indians and Muslims may have backfired, costing the alliance votes. Uddhav Thackeray had hoped that Raj's oratory skills would consolidate Marathi votes and attract Muslim votes, but this strategy did not succeed.
Despite being part of the ruling Mahayuti coalition in Maharashtra, the BJP and Shinde's Shiv Sena have clashed over the mayoral post in Kalyan-Dombivli. The BJP has insisted on a power-sharing arrangement with a 2.5-year split mayoral term, while the Shinde Sena is keen on retaining the post for the full term. The MNS's support could allow Shinde's Sena to bypass the need for a power-sharing deal with the BJP.
The potential realignment has significant implications for the BMC mayoral race. A tie-up between the MNS and the BJP-Shinde Sena could further marginalize Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT) in Mumbai. However, it remains to be seen whether Raj Thackeray is willing to formally join hands with the BJP, considering his past criticism of the party. The coming days are crucial and will reveal whether Raj Thackeray will indeed ditch his cousin Uddhav for a new alliance with the BJP and Sena in Mumbai's BMC.
