West Bengal's political landscape is often dissected through the lens of religious identity, particularly concerning its substantial Muslim population. Constituting approximately 30% of the state's populace, Muslims are a significant demographic in около 70 to 80 of the 294 assembly seats, primarily concentrated in districts like Malda, Murshidabad, Uttar Dinajpur, South 24 Parganas, and Birbhum. This has led to the perception of Muslims as a consolidated "vote bank" capable of swaying electoral outcomes. However, the influence of individual Muslim leaders and religious figures on the state's electoral math is a complex and often overstated phenomenon. Examining the roles of figures like Abbas Siddiqui and Humayun Kabir reveals the nuances of Muslim political engagement in Bengal.

Abbas Siddiqui, an influential cleric from Furfura Sharif, emerged as a political force before the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections by floating the Indian Secular Front (ISF). Aligning with the Left Front and Congress, Siddiqui aimed to represent the interests of marginalized communities, including Bengali-speaking Muslims and backward caste Hindus. While his entry was initially perceived as a potential disruptor of the "Muslim vote bank," particularly for the Trinamool Congress (TMC), the actual electoral impact was limited. The ISF won only one seat, Bhangar, in South 24 Parganas. This modest performance underscores the difficulty in translating religious influence into tangible electoral gains. Several factors contributed to this outcome. Firstly, the Muslim electorate is not monolithic; socio-economic factors, cultural identities, and local issues also shape voting preferences. Secondly, the TMC, led by Mamata Banerjee, has cultivated a strong support base among Muslims through various pro-minority policies and welfare measures. These include providing allowances to Imams, scholarships to Muslim students, and recognizing Urdu as an official language in certain districts.

Humayun Kabir's political trajectory further illustrates the complexities of Muslim influence in Bengal's elections. A former police officer and TMC MLA, Kabir has been a figure of controversy, often switching between parties. He has served as a minister in Mamata Banerjee's cabinet, been expelled from the TMC, joined the BJP, and then returned to the TMC. In December 2025, Kabir was suspended from the TMC again after announcing plans to build a "Babri Masjid-style" mosque. Subsequently, he launched his own political party, the Janata Unnayan Party, with the aim of contesting over 100 seats in the next Assembly elections. Despite his attempts to consolidate Muslim support, Kabir's influence appears to be limited to specific pockets in Murshidabad district. His frequent party switches and controversial statements have likely eroded his credibility among a broader electorate.

While leaders like Siddiqui and Kabir can mobilize sections of the Muslim population, their ability to fundamentally alter the electoral math remains constrained. The TMC has successfully cultivated a loyal Muslim voter base through a combination of welfare policies, symbolic gestures, and effective grassroots organization. Moreover, the Muslim electorate is increasingly discerning, prioritizing socio-economic development, education, and employment opportunities alongside religious identity. The BJP's attempts to consolidate Hindu votes through communal polarization have also had limited success, with experts suggesting that such strategies have often backfired in West Bengal.

In conclusion, while Muslim religious figures and community leaders undoubtedly wield some influence in West Bengal elections, their impact is often localized and contingent on various factors. The idea of a unified "Muslim vote bank" that can be easily swayed by individual leaders is an oversimplification. The state's political dynamics are shaped by a complex interplay of religious identity, socio-economic concerns, party affiliations, and the credibility of individual candidates. Therefore, while figures like Abbas Siddiqui and Humayun Kabir generate considerable attention, their capacity to single-handedly reshape the electoral landscape remains limited.