India is carefully considering joining the U.S.-led "Pax Silica" alliance, a move that could reshape its technological landscape and geopolitical strategy. Pax Silica, launched in December 2025, aims to create a secure, allied ecosystem for semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), critical minerals, and advanced logistics, with the primary goal of reducing reliance on China.
U.S. Ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, extended a formal invitation to New Delhi to join the alliance, with officials anticipating India's signing in February 2026. If India accepts, it would be the first developing country and non-US ally to join Pax Silica. This move is viewed as potentially positioning India as a large, alternative manufacturing base within the alliance.
However, India's potential entry into Pax Silica is fraught with concerns about sovereignty and strategic autonomy. As a developing country with a relatively young semiconductor and AI ecosystem, India seeks to protect its domestic industries by granting preferential treatment to local firms through subsidies, government procurement, and import regulations. Aligning with Pax Silica may require India to adopt U.S.-led standards for electronics and AI, potentially limiting its ability to implement "India-first" industrial policies.
One major concern is "digital sovereignty". India's Digital Personal Data Protection (DPDP) Act mandates that critical citizen data remain within the country. Pax Silica, however, encourages seamless data flows between trusted partners, which could pose a challenge to India's data protection policies.
Another significant worry is potential retaliation from China. India remains heavily reliant on China for legacy chips, electronic components, and processed minerals. Analysts suggest that China could weaponize its licensing conditions on rare-earth magnets, crucial for electric vehicles and electronics, as a response to India joining Pax Silica. A similar situation occurred in 2025 when China suspended the supply of rare-earth magnets to India, negatively impacting the country's automobile and electronics industries.
India's ongoing deliberations regarding China further complicate the decision. The Indian government is considering a proposal to lift the ban on Chinese companies bidding for government contracts worth over $700 billion. Joining Pax Silica would effectively require India to commit to a "Silicon Curtain," aligning its tech standards and supply chains exclusively with a U.S.-led bloc aiming to "de-risk" from China. This could alienate the Chinese supply chains that India relies on to solve immediate industrial bottlenecks.
Despite these concerns, Pax Silica offers potential benefits for India. Membership could secure long-term technology transfers to address India's AI lag. It also reinforces the U.S. policy of maintaining an "18-month moving gap," ensuring that members have preferred access to advanced chips, frontier AI systems, and high-end manufacturing tools, while non-members face tighter export controls.
The decision to join Pax Silica presents India with a complex strategic challenge. It must weigh the potential benefits of closer alignment with the U.S. and access to advanced technologies against the risks to its sovereignty, strategic autonomy, and potential economic repercussions from China. As India seeks to establish itself as a major player in the global technology landscape, its choice regarding Pax Silica will have far-reaching consequences.
