India's agricultural sector is bracing for potential impacts as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a warmer and drier than normal February 2026, which could adversely affect Rabi crops. The IMD's outlook, released on Saturday, indicates that above-normal temperatures are likely to accelerate crop growth, potentially shortening the duration of Rabi crops, especially in the northwest and central regions of India.
The forecast suggests that there will be fewer and less intense western disturbances (WDs), which means that both day and night temperatures are likely to be higher than usual, with rainfall below the average for northwest India. IMD Director General M. Mohapatra stated that the department has issued specific warnings and advice for Rabi crops, anticipating high day temperatures due to the reduced impact of western disturbances, and potentially high night temperatures due to cloudy skies associated with mild WDs.
The expected warm and dry conditions may lead to forced maturity in crops like wheat and barley, resulting in yield reduction due to sterile spikelets and chaffy grains. Oilseeds and pulses, including mustard, chickpea, lentil, and field peas, may experience early flowering and premature maturity, which can lead to poor pod development, reduced seed size, and consequently, lower yields.
Vegetable crops are also at risk. Potatoes, onions, garlic, tomatoes, cabbage, and peas could be adversely affected during critical growth stages such as tuber initiation, bulb development, flowering, and fruit setting. Higher temperatures may induce bolting in onions and garlic, reduce tuber bulking in potatoes, and cause flower drop in tomatoes, potentially decreasing both yield and market value.
The warmer February is also projected to reduce the accumulation of chilling hours necessary for temperate fruits like apples, pears, and peaches, which could lead to irregular flowering.
The IMD reported that the country's rainfall in January was 31.5% below normal, with northwest India experiencing a particularly dry winter, marked by an 84.8% rainfall deficiency in December and 84% in the first ten days of January. Although the rainfall deficiency improved in late January, the overall snowfall period was short. The IMD also noted a decreasing trend in rainfall and snowfall activity over the western Himalayan region, potentially linked to climate change.
Looking ahead, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during February-March. However, there's a 48% chance of El Niño emerging in the second half of the monsoon season. El Niño years are typically associated with weaker monsoons and harsher summers in India, and another El Niño event in 2026 could exacerbate the warming effects of climate change.
Despite the concerning forecast, there is some hope. It is estimated that over 80% of the wheat crop sown in North India comprises climate-resistant varieties, and the region is highly irrigated. As of fiscal year 2021, nearly 55% of India's total area was under irrigation, compared to 49.3% in fiscal year 2016.
The IMD's forecast indicates that monthly rainfall over the country is likely to be 81% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal across most of the country, except in some parts of south peninsular India. Below-normal cold wave days are expected in northwest and adjoining central India.
