Bitcoin's next accumulation phase may hinge on the timing of credit stress, according to recent data analysis. As Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a dip below $73,000 on Tuesday, data reveals underlying macroeconomic challenges impacting the markets. Tightening credit conditions, coupled with elevated U.S. debt and borrowing costs, are key factors influencing Bitcoin's price trajectory in the coming months.

The ICE BofA U.S. Corporate Option-Adjusted Spread, a metric that tracks the extra yield investors demand for holding corporate bonds over U.S. Treasuries, is currently at 0.75, its lowest level since 1998. This compression suggests that risk in the credit markets may be underpriced, especially considering the U.S. government debt reached $38.5 trillion at the end of January. The 10-year Treasury yield, after a brief dip below 4% in October, has climbed back to 4.28%, contributing to tighter financial conditions.

Historically, Bitcoin has formed local bottoms after credit spreads began to widen, as seen in the market cycles of 2018, 2020, and 2022. This process typically unfolds over three to six months, rather than immediately.

Currently, the market remains cautious, with BTC struggling to break the $80,000 resistance. Approximately 46% of the Bitcoin supply is underwater, and technical indicators are bearish. Analysts are closely monitoring credit stress timing and the prospects of the CLARITY Act, while crypto markets grapple with weak liquidity and mixed ETF performance.

Earlier in February, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, declining from its January highs. Long liquidations accounted for the majority of total liquidations, indicating positioning stress. Throughout 2025, the correlation between crypto and gold tightened as institutional investors increasingly viewed Bitcoin as "digital gold," a hedge against currency debasement.

The Bitcoin market cycle consists of alternating periods of appreciation and depreciation influenced by market sentiment. This sentiment is affected by regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the broader economic landscape. Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle tied to halving events, which reduce the reward miners receive for mining new blocks. The next halving is expected in April 2028.

The accumulation phase occurs when prices are relatively low, and signs of growth emerge. Bearish sentiment is typical during this phase, resulting in low volume and price fluctuations within a tight range. Forward-thinking buyers often accumulate Bitcoin during this phase, anticipating future upside.