India's acceleration of the Chenab River dam projects is causing alarm in Pakistan due to concerns over water security and potential weaponization of water resources. This apprehension stems from several factors: Pakistan's high dependence on the Indus basin rivers, the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by India, and India's increasing control over the river's flow.
The Chenab River is a crucial water source for Pakistan, with approximately 75% of the country's water supply originating from rivers flowing from India. The Indus basin, of which the Chenab is a major part, is the lifeline for Pakistan's agriculture, which accounts for over 90% of its food production. Most of Pakistan's dams and canals are built around this system, making it highly vulnerable to any upstream control.
Under the IWT, signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers were allocated to Pakistan, while the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej were given to India. However, India retains the right to use the western rivers for domestic, agricultural, and non-consumptive uses like hydropower generation. The treaty allows India to store up to 1.2 million acre-feet of water.
In April 2025, India suspended the IWT following a terror attack in Pahalgam, which significantly heightened tensions. This suspension has paved the way for India to fast-track several hydropower projects on the Chenab River, including the ₹5,129 crore Sawalkote Hydroelectric Project. The Sawalkote project, a run-of-the-river hydropower plant with a planned capacity of 1,856 MW, is located between the Baglihar and Salal projects. Bids for the project's construction were invited in February 2026, with the project expected to be completed in approximately nine years.
Besides Sawalkote, India is also expediting other Chenab basin projects, including Pakal Dul (1,000 MW), Kiru Project, Kwar Project, and Ratle Project. These projects aim to generate power and manage water flows more effectively. India has also approved the Dulhasti Stage-II Hydropower Project.
Pakistan fears that these projects will give India greater control over the Chenab's water flow, potentially leading to disruptions in its water supply, especially during critical agricultural periods. There have already been instances where Pakistan has accused India of manipulating river flows, such as the release of 58,000 cusecs of water at Head Marala in December 2025, followed by a sharp reduction. Pakistan alleges that these actions violate the IWT.
Some analysts interpret India's actions as a strategy to leverage its position and assert greater control over the rivers allocated to Pakistan under the treaty. With the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, India appears to have greater freedom to approve and fast-track projects on the western rivers.
In response to these developments, Pakistan is considering building a Rs 220 billion Chenab Dam to counter India's advantage. However, this project is years away from completion, leaving Pakistan vulnerable in the interim. Some experts suggest implementing real-time telemetry systems and adaptive water allocation strategies to manage sudden flow variations.
The situation remains tense, with Pakistan viewing any manipulation of river flow by India as a direct threat to its water, food, and economic security. Some Pakistani figures have even termed it a "water war". As India continues to fast-track its Chenab dam projects, the concerns in Pakistan over water security and the potential for water weaponization are likely to persist.