As of July 25, 2025, fluctuating trends are observed in petrol and diesel prices across different regions and cities. Several factors contribute to these price variations, including international benchmark prices, the value of the Australian dollar (for Australian prices), taxes, and geopolitical events.

Global Market Influences

The global market significantly drives fuel costs. Geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts and sanctions in oil-producing regions, can disrupt supply chains and create uncertainty in the oil market, leading to price spikes. The fundamental economic principle of supply and demand also plays a crucial role; when demand exceeds supply, prices tend to rise, and vice versa. Decisions made by OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) regarding oil production levels can also influence global oil prices.

Regional Price Updates

• United States: The U.S. average retail gasoline price is $3.16 per gallon as of July 24, 2025. This is down from $3.614 one year ago. Diesel prices average $3.74 per gallon. Regional variations exist, with the West Coast typically having the highest prices. For example, California's average gasoline price is $4.26 per gallon.
• Australia: Fuel prices in Australia are set by the market, with international benchmark prices and the value of the Australian dollar having the most influence.
• Goa, India: Diesel prices in Goa remain steady at INR 87.95 per liter. Several factors influence diesel rates, including the Rupee to USD exchange rate, crude oil costs, global cues, and fuel demand.
• Philippines: Motorists in the Philippines should expect mixed movements in pump prices in the coming week. Gasoline prices may remain unchanged or decrease by approximately P0.10 per liter, while diesel prices are expected to increase by about P0.50 per liter. Kerosene prices may also rise by around P0.30 per liter.

Factors Influencing Price Changes

Several factors are currently influencing fuel price movements:

• Crude Oil Prices: The cost of petroleum accounts for a significant portion of gasoline and diesel prices. Global demand, future demand for oil as an asset, and the geopolitical situation of producing countries all affect crude oil prices.
• Unexpected Decline in U.S. Crude Inventories: A recent unexpected decline in U.S. crude inventories has reinforced signs of strong refinery activity, contributing to price fluctuations.
• U.S. Trade Policies: Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies also plays a role in fuel price movements.
• Geopolitical Conflicts: Geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict between Iran and Israel, can impact fuel prices.
• Taxes: Taxes are a key factor in determining gasoline and diesel prices, with the cost of taxes potentially accounting for 50%-60% of the price in some regions.
• Distribution Costs and Margins: Distribution costs, including filling station costs and transportation prices, also contribute to the final price of fuels.
• Refining Costs: Refining costs, which include operational expenses, maintenance, and the need to meet environmental regulations, can impact fuel prices.
• Seasonal Demand: Gasoline demand typically rises in the summer months, leading to increased prices.

Future Price Trends

Gasoline is expected to trade at $2.19 USD/GAL by the end of the current quarter and $2.33 in 12 months. However, predictions remain subject to change based on the above factors. The Department of Energy (DOE) in various regions continues to monitor these factors to provide guidance on expected fuel price adjustments.