The friendship between former US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, once touted as a significant geopolitical alignment, has significantly deteriorated, particularly during Trump's second term in office, leading to a diplomatic and trade crisis between the two nations. Several key events contributed to this unraveling.

Episode 1: Trade Tensions Escalate

Even before the recent crisis, trade disagreements were a persistent irritant in the relationship. Trump, known for his "America First" policy, frequently criticized India for being a "tariff king" and a "very big abuser" concerning its trade surplus with the United States. These tensions finally erupted into a full-blown trade war in August 2025. The Trump administration, frustrated by the slow pace of trade negotiations and what it perceived as India's "performative" stance, imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods. This initial tariff was followed by an additional 25% penalty tied to India's continued imports of Russian oil, bringing the total duty to a staggering 50%, among the highest the US has imposed on any trading partner.

Episode 2: The Russia-Ukraine War and Oil Imports

A major point of contention was India's continuedimport of Russian oil despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The US, leading the Western effort to isolate Russia economically, pressured India to cut down on its Russian imports. However, India, with its long-standing policy of strategic autonomy, refused to comply, maintaining that its energy needs were paramount. Trump, in turn, accused India of indirectly funding Russia's war and "profiteering" by selling refined oil on the open market. This stance led to the doubling of tariffs, further straining relations.

Episode 3: Trump's Claims of Mediation in the India-Pakistan Conflict

Adding fuel to the fire, Trump repeatedly claimed to have brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan following a four-day conflict. He asserted that he warned both countries of imposing tariffs so high that their "heads would spin" if they did not agree to a ceasefire. These claims were vehemently disputed by New Delhi, which maintained that the truce was brought about bilaterally and that trade was never discussed as a factor.

Episode 4: The Pahalgam Attack and Relations with Pakistan

Trump's engagement with Pakistan, particularly his meeting with Pakistan's Army chief shortly after a terrorist attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 Indian civilians, further angered New Delhi. Trump's praise for Islamabad and his administration's consideration of joint exploration of Pakistan's oil reserves were seen as a shift in US policy that had previously been sensitive to India's concerns.

Episode 5: Modi's Rejection of Trump's Calls and a Missed Meeting

Amid the escalating tensions, reports emerged that Prime Minister Modi had declined multiple phone calls from President Trump. A German newspaper, Frankfurter Allegemeine Zeitung, reported that Modi refused to take at least four calls from Trump in recent weeks amid a raging trade dispute. Additionally, a planned meeting between Modi and Trump during the UN General Assembly in September 2024 fell through after the Indian side backed out because Trump's rival, Kamala Harris, declined to participate in a joint meeting.

The imposition of tariffs has had a significant impact on India's economy. The 50% tariff is expected to affect a large proportion of India's exports to the US, potentially leading to a decline in overall shipments and job losses in key sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, and leather. Some economists have warned that the tariffs could shave off up to one percentage point from India's GDP growth.

In response, Prime Minister Modi has urged Indians to prioritize buying domestically made goods and has asserted that he will protect the interests of farmers and small-scale industries. However, the long-term consequences of the strained relationship remain uncertain. While some analysts believe that the two countries will eventually "come together" due to their shared interests, others fear that Trump's actions could drive India closer to China and Russia.