Gold prices in India are projected to continue their upward trajectory, potentially reaching ₹1.25 lakh per 10 grams by the first half of 2026. This forecast is supported by expectations of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve and persistent concerns regarding the US economy.
Key Factors Influencing the Outlook
Several factors are expected to contribute to the rise in gold prices:
- US Economic Concerns: Continued structural weaknesses and institutional concerns about the US economy are likely to keep gold prices bullish in the medium term.
- Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: Anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are also expected to support higher gold prices.
- Rupee Depreciation: A weaker rupee against the US dollar could further increase gold prices for Indian consumers, as it would make imports more expensive. ICICI Bank assumes an average USD/INR range of 87.00-89.00 for their projections.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Intensifying geopolitical tensions could drive further upside in gold prices, as investors seek safe-haven assets.
- Inflation: As inflation rises and currencies weaken, gold tends to hold its value better, making it a preferred choice for those looking to preserve their purchasing power.
- Increased Accessibility: Digital platforms have opened up access to gold investments through options like Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs), Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), and mobile investment apps. This wider accessibility has contributed to increased demand.
Expert Predictions
ICICI Bank's Economic Research Group anticipates Indian gold prices to trade between ₹99,500 and ₹110,000 per 10 grams for the remainder of 2025, subsequently climbing to ₹110,000 - ₹125,000 in the first half of 2026. They also forecast global bullion prices to average USD 3,400-3,600 per ounce during the rest of 2025 and then rise to USD 3,600-3,800 per ounce in the first half of 2026.
Other predictions suggest a steady upward trend for gold prices in India leading into 2026, influenced by economic and global factors.
Investment Options
For those looking to invest in gold, several options are available:
- Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs): Issued by the Reserve Bank of India, SGBs offer annual interest and a tax benefit if held until maturity.
- Gold ETFs: Traded on stock exchanges, Gold ETFs follow gold's market price, offering a flexible investment option.
- Digital Gold: Fintech platforms offer digital gold, allowing investments in small amounts with the option to redeem or sell anytime.
- Gold Mutual Funds: These funds invest in gold ETFs, providing indirect exposure to gold's performance with professional management.
Factors to Consider
When buying gold, it is important to verify its purity. Also, keep in mind that while predictions suggest an upward trend, future gold rates may fluctuate depending on market conditions.
