The informal Russia-India-China (RIC) meeting held on September 1st in Tianjin, on the sidelines of the SCO summit, has seemingly prompted a reassessment of U.S. foreign policy, particularly towards India. The gathering, which saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi taking a proactive role, appears to have contributed to a thawing of Indo-U.S. relations, with President Trump softening his stance on tariffs and engaging in a phone call with Modi.
The optics of the RIC huddle sparked concern within the U.S., with media outlets suggesting that Washington was at risk of losing India to China. This discourse seemingly triggered a sense of urgency within the U.S. establishment, leading to a recalibration of its approach towards the region.
The RIC initiative, rooted in the vision of former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, aims to establish a powerful trilateral alliance that can counterbalance the perceived U.S. unipolarity in the post-Cold War era. While the U.S. may view Russia as a declining regional power compared to China, Russia sees itself as a major player seeking to protect its interests on the global stage.
The Tianjin meeting served to highlight the potential of the RIC grouping as a counterweight to U.S. influence. Each country has its own perceptions and approaches to critical issues, such as multipolar world order, counter-terrorism and cooperation. For India, participation in the RIC strengthens its policy of multi-alignment and its bargaining power with the U.S.
The U.S. has had a complex relationship with each of the RIC nations. Relations between the U.S. and India have been strained by U.S. tariffs on Indian goods and disagreements over India's energy and defense ties with Russia. Simultaneously, China-Indian relations have seen a reset, including discussions on border de-escalation after the 2020 Galwan Valley conflict. This shift could be a strategic move by China to limit India's alignment with the U.S. or a hedge by India against U.S. unpredictability.
The meeting in Tianjin sent a message that the RIC nations, targeted by the U.S. and its European allies, can no longer be ignored. Seeing the leaders of Russia, India, and China together seemingly "touched a raw nerve" and "inflamed" Trump. Modi's engagement with Putin and Xi signaled to Washington that New Delhi has alternative options.
The SCO summit in Tianjin strengthened Russia-India-China cooperation, signaling resistance to U.S. trade and foreign policy pressures. The way New Delhi interacted with China and Russia at Tianjin, and with the U.S. on a larger scale, suggests a determination to assert India's strategic autonomy.
The RIC troika presents a strategic opportunity to unite against external economic pressure and reaffirm foreign policy autonomy. Each country pursues its policies based on national interests. The warming of India-China relations stood out in SCO Summit as a strategic point to rein in Trump's tariff threat. The security concern between China and India is tapering, with Russia playing an important role for camaraderie in the group.