It may seem hard to believe, but now is possibly the safest time to be alive in both India and the world. This assertion is supported by data indicating declining murder rates in India and globally.
India's Declining Murder Rate
The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) in India began tracking murder and culpable homicide data in 1957. In that year, India's murder rate was 2.57 per lakh of population. By 2023, the murder rate had fallen to 2.25 per lakh. Although the murder rate increased steadily after 1957, it peaked in the 1990s and has been dropping ever since. The rate fell below 4 in 2001 and below 3 in 2013. Among larger states with over 1,000 murder and culpable homicide cases, Jharkhand had the highest rate at 3.8 per lakh population, followed by Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Assam, Odisha, and Telangana, each reporting a rate of 3 or higher.
Global Trends in Safety
Worldwide, Japan is considered the safest country, while South Africa is considered the most dangerous, according to World Bank data. In 2020, Japan had only 0.3 murders per lakh population. Comparable data across countries is not available for later years.
Factors Contributing to Increased Safety
Several factors contribute to the increased safety observed today. There has been a significant increase in life expectancy in India, from 49.7 years in 1970-75 to 69.7 years in 2015-19. This increase is attributed to better medical care, improved diets, and healthier lifestyles. Access to clean water, antibiotics, vaccines, and more nutritious food has also played a role. Furthermore, increased awareness of the benefits of exercise and healthy lifestyle choices has contributed to increased life expectancy.
Historical Perspective
Looking at historical trends, violence has declined over long periods. According to Steven Pinker, a public intellectual, we may be living in the most peaceful era of our species' existence. In prehistoric North America, one in six people died violently. In 14th-century London, the murder rate was about 100 per 100,000 people, compared to about 2 per 100,000 now. In late 16th-century Rome, the rate was between 30 and 70, now closer to 1.
Challenges and Considerations
Despite the overall trend toward increased safety, it is important to acknowledge that violence still exists. However, these instances are viewed as exceptions to the rule. There are circumstances that can cause violence to increase. It is also important to consider that life expectancy statistics are averages and do not guarantee how long an individual will live. Life expectancy is influenced by factors such as economic, educational, and health conditions.
While challenges remain, the data suggests that we are living in a time of unprecedented safety in both India and the world. Declining murder rates, increased life expectancy, and improved living conditions all point to a world that is becoming increasingly safe.
